Original tickets, recorded prices and final grades.
Week 5 ticket archive. These are completed October 3 tickets at their original prices. Saved pregame rationale is retained for review. Current Week 6 edition →
Week 5 · Saturday, October 3 · Graded ticket archive
Matrix Unhinged.
Week 5 results at the recorded prices. Spread legs were 5–1; only Parlay A won.
Week 5 graded · 1 of 5 variants wonDraftKings via ESPN odds feedQuotes observed Oct 3, 1:49 AM ET (Oct 2, 10:49 PM Phoenix)
Recorded quotes, not a live sportsbook feed. These tickets are separate from the Signal Board’s published selections. Actual placed bets and stakes were not supplied; calculator amounts remain illustrative.
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Change the example stake to update every return below.
$0.01–$10,000 · up to two decimals
Parlay A · 3 spread legs
Texas power. Boston College cushion.
Two Texas favorites with model room, plus a three-touchdown cushion for Boston College.
Ticket legsDraftKings
Texas A&M -14Arkansas at Texas A&M
-108
Texas Tech -13.5Texas Tech at Colorado
-110
Boston College +21Boston College at SMU
-105
Combined odds (approx.)+618
$10.00 total return$71.78
Net profit if all win$61.78
Saved pregame note Texas A&M depends on Mario Craver’s final status. Drop that leg if he is out or substantially limited.
Model view & the case for each leg 27.8% raw hit estimate
Ticket probabilities assume independent games and use the published model. Matchup context identifies player and weather factors.
Arkansas 19 – Texas A&M 40Raw cover 68.3%
Texas Tech 35 – Colorado 16Raw cover 65.6%
Boston College 18 – SMU 35Raw cover 61.9%
Ticket estimate: 27.8%. Reducing each leg by five percentage points lowers it to 21.84%.
Texas A&M
Matrix by 21.2; 7.2 points of room at -14.
Bussey out; Craver questionable. Recheck the final report.
Florida State, Clemson and Arkansas State get points in games the Matrix projects closer.
Ticket legsDraftKings
Florida State +1.5Virginia at Florida State
-110
Clemson +15.5Miami (FL) at Clemson
-110
Arkansas State +6.5Arkansas State at Louisiana
-115
Combined odds (approx.)+581
$10.00 total return$68.14
Net profit if all win$58.14
Saved pregame note Florida State +1.5 and Clemson +15.5 fall short of the Signal Board’s +3 and +17.5 requirements. This ticket accepts less cushion and remains .
Model view & the case for each leg 25.7% raw hit estimate
Ticket probabilities assume independent games and use the published model. Matchup context identifies player and weather factors.
Virginia 22 – Florida State 26Raw cover 65.2%
Miami (FL) 28 – Clemson 18Raw cover 62.7%
Arkansas State 28 – Louisiana 30Raw cover 62.9%
Ticket estimate: 25.7%. Reducing each leg by five percentage points lowers it to 20.10%.
Florida State
Matrix favors FSU by 4.4 while the market gives 1.5.
Final availability and thunderstorm risk still need a check.
Target: +1.5 or better, price -110 or better; prefer +3
Clemson at home, Stanford on the road and Arkansas State in a close underlying matchup.
Ticket legsDraftKings
Clemson MLMiami (FL) at Clemson
+525
Stanford MLStanford at Wake Forest
+455
Arkansas State MLArkansas State at Louisiana
+190
Combined odds (approx.)+9,959
$10.00 total return$1,005.94
Net profit if all win$995.94
Saved pregame note All three teams must win outright. Stanford has lost 12 straight road games and has multiple DB/OL absences. Louisiana’s defense is a major obstacle for Arkansas State.
Model view & the case for each leg 2.99% raw hit estimate
Ticket probabilities assume independent games and use the published model. Matchup context identifies player and weather factors.
Miami (FL) 28 – Clemson 18Raw win 23.9%
Stanford 18 – Wake Forest 28Raw win 27.2%
Arkansas State 28 – Louisiana 30Raw win 45.8%
Ticket estimate: 2.99%. Reducing each leg by five percentage points lowers it to 1.72%.
Clemson
Preferred marquee upset: a home night game and a defense improving after LSU. Path: keep it within one possession into the fourth quarter and win a turnover or special-teams swing. This is a scenario, not a measured probability boost.
Preferred larger-price road swing: Davis Warren has 143 pass attempts without an interception and Stanford beat Georgia Tech 34-27. Path: clean QB play and explosives to Caden High. Major negatives: 12 consecutive road losses, multiple DB/OL absences and Galvan doubtful. Raw 27.2% is not injury-adjusted.
Closest underlying matchup in the core: Matrix makes Louisiana only a 1.57-point favorite. Path: Owens efficiency, avoid Louisiana takeaways, stay competitive late. Louisiana defensive results are substantial counterevidence; this is Low model confidence.
Both extensions repeat the core three upsets. Adding teams raises the payout and lowers the chance of a clean ticket.
Four-team swing · 4 moneyline legsLOSS
Add Missouri.
The core three upsets plus Missouri to beat Florida.
Clemson ML+525
Stanford ML+455
Arkansas State ML+190
Missouri ML+180
Combined odds (approx.)+28,066
$10.00 total return$2,816.63
Net profit if all win$2,806.63
Missouri has seven players out, including two running backs and an offensive lineman. Reassess the replacement plan before adding this leg.
Raw independent hit estimate: 1.54% · unadjusted
Five-team moonshot · 5 moneyline legsLOSS
Add Boston College.
The four-team swing plus Boston College to beat SMU.
Clemson ML+525
Stanford ML+455
Arkansas State ML+190
Missouri ML+180
Boston College ML+1,000
Combined odds (approx.)+309,729
$10.00 total return$30,982.88
Net profit if all win$30,972.88
Boston College is the weakest upset edge. A five-point reduction in its raw win estimate removes that leg’s value at +1000. Several linemen and defenders are out.
Raw independent hit estimate: 0.21% · unadjusted
Totals on the radar Recorded model comparison
None enters the weekend tickets. These are projection gaps; total probabilities remain uncalibrated.
Oregon State at Colorado StateUnder 62.5 -110
Matrix total: 47.0
Hejny doubtful and multiple Colorado State OL out; replacement offense remains uncertain.
Florida at MissouriUnder 57.5 -108
Matrix total: 48.5
Missouri personnel losses support the idea, but turnovers and short fields can break it.
Temple at South FloridaOver 48.5 -108
Matrix total: 58.1
Tempo, final personnel and game-window weather still need verification.
How to read the estimates & returns
Raw model estimates assume independent games and use the frozen Matrix margin distribution. Cover estimates are theoretical, not validated cover rates. Current injuries and weather have not received new numerical adjustments. Shared model error can materially reduce the hit chance. Totals have no calibrated betting probability.
Illustrative returns multiply the recorded leg prices and round to cents. Total return includes the stake; profit excludes it. Every leg must win. A push or void can change the payout. Book limits, boosts and taxes are excluded; confirm the final sportsbook slip.
Tickets overlap: Clemson and Arkansas State also appear in Parlay B; Boston College appears in Parlay A and the five-team swing. Returns describe separate tickets, not independent portfolio outcomes.
