Week 6 complete · Week 7 review

THE RECEIPTS.

58 reconciled finals, frozen forecasts and separate saved-market diagnostics. Earlier weekly archives remain preserved below.

Week 6 winner picks39–1967.2% · 58 games

Saved spread diagnostic30–26–157 covered

Saved total diagnostic27–3158 forecasts compared

Week 6 full evaluation

58 finals · 39–19 winner picks · 30–26–1 saved spreads · 27–31 totals.

Active margin MAE 11.26 versus frozen benchmark 11.04: active worse by 0.22. Total MAE 13.20 versus saved market 12.41. Settings retained. Closing-line value and actual ticket profit unavailable.

Game	Original Matrix	Final	Winner	Margin error	Total error	Spread diagnostic	Total diagnostic
Southern Miss at Troy	18–37	34–55	W	1.13	34.11	W	W
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	27–27	27–26	W	0.76	1.72	W	W
New Mexico State at Florida International	24–29	3–22	W	14.36	28.04	L	L
Missouri State at Western Kentucky	22–33	13–34	W	9.36	8.29	W	W
Sam Houston at Liberty	17–40	3–35	W	8.76	18.66	W	L
South Alabama at Arkansas State	26–32	56–49	L	13.35	47.53	L	L
South Florida at UTSA	28–32	24–31	W	2.78	4.88	P	W
Florida State at Louisville	24–27	20–44	W	21.01	12.86	L	L
Iowa at Washington	23–25	41–24	L	19.06	17.44	W	W
Washington State at Utah State	23–26	16–17	W	2.35	16.24	W	L
Wyoming at San Jose State	22–24	16–13	L	4.90	16.88	W	L
Iowa State at BYU	15–33	10–24	W	3.51	13.99	W	W
Arizona at West Virginia	30–22	52–31	W	12.25	30.91	W	L
Indiana at Nebraska	31–20	20–17	W	7.64	14.16	L	W
North Carolina at Pittsburgh	21–28	21–17	L	10.95	11.60	L	L
Sacramento State at Bowling Green	17–30	10–38	W	14.41	0.89	W	W
Texas A&M at Missouri	28–24	6–27	L	24.27	19.19	L	L
Tulane at Army	23–28	17–20	W	1.95	14.26	L	L
UCF at Oklahoma State	20–30	28–42	W	4.46	20.13	L	L
Wake Forest at NC State	24–27	38–14	L	26.97	1.03	L	W
Ball State at Northwestern	4–43	14–45	W	7.85	12.77	L	L
South Carolina at Florida	20–28	38–19	L	27.75	8.79	W	W
Old Dominion at Appalachian State	25–25	10–3	L	7.49	36.74	W	W
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	34–12	20–19	W	20.99	7.21	L	W
Buffalo at Toledo	19–25	23–8	L	21.40	12.60	W	W
Central Michigan at Ohio	21–21	14–31	W	16.23	2.79	L	W
Charlotte at North Texas	16–41	10–50	W	14.59	2.73	L	L
Duke at Georgia Tech	29–27	25–28	L	5.02	3.95	W	W
Eastern Michigan at Akron	25–22	25–23	W	0.19	0.85	W	W
Houston at Kansas State	27–29	35–16	L	20.69	4.78	W	L
Illinois at Michigan State	30–24	38–37	W	5.03	21.56	L	W
Kent State at Western Michigan	16–32	7–38	W	14.51	2.53	W	W
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	32–26	52–17	W	29.45	11.45	L	L
Stanford at Notre Dame	8–43	7–58	W	16.58	13.69	L	L
Texas at Oklahoma	28–20	24–27	L	10.92	2.91	L	W
Tulsa at Navy	23–32	26–34	W	1.35	4.60	W	W
UCLA at Oregon	17–39	17–15	L	23.98	23.04	L	W
Virginia Tech at California	30–25	20–25	L	10.52	10.03	W	L
UConn at Temple	25–31	34–20	L	19.29	2.29	L	L
Rice at East Carolina	18–31	12–28	W	3.47	9.46	W	W
Maryland at Ohio State	8–41	16–45	W	3.64	12.35	W	L
Tennessee at Arkansas	38–25	24–17	W	5.38	21.88	W	L
San Diego State at Oregon State	22–26	14–66	W	48.00	32.80	L	L
Coastal Carolina at Marshall	26–34	27–21	L	13.61	12.55	L	L
LSU at Kentucky	30–16	34–35	L	15.08	22.73	L	L
Nevada at UTEP	29–19	30–13	W	7.87	4.98	L	W
North Dakota State at UNLV	24–31	7–13	W	1.43	35.34	W	L
UAB at Memphis	21–38	13–38	W	7.49	8.24	W	L
Air Force at Northern Illinois	32–17	28–7	W	6.76	13.96	W	L
Georgia at Alabama	25–23	20–17	W	0.52	11.10	W	W
James Madison at Georgia Southern	31–23	27–24	W	4.82	2.52	W	L
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech	27–30	31–32	W	1.75	6.34	L	W
Syracuse at Virginia	20–27	25–28	W	4.38	5.88	W	L
USC at Penn State	26–28	31–23	L	10.07	0.91	L	W
Minnesota at Purdue	28–21	13–41	L	34.74	4.91	L	L
Hawaii at Arizona State	19–34	12–30	W	3.06	10.56	W	L
Kansas at Utah	21–35	24–41	W	2.84	9.64	N/A	W
Boise State at Fresno State	27–20	38–31	W	0.02	21.66	W	L

Week 5 closeout

Week 5 archive: accuracy against the market

Mean absolute error measures average distance from the final result in points. These are opening-line diagnostics; closing-line value is unavailable.

Same 56 FBS games	Matrix error	Opening market error
Margin MAE	13.43	13.53
Total MAE	13.80	13.07
Winner accuracy	73.2%	67.9%

Week 5 closeout

Week 5 archive: tickets and watch lists

Matrix Unhinged: 1 of 5 ticket variants won. Unique spread legs were 5–1. Total ideas were 0–3; Upset Watch was 2–4 outright and 3–3 ATS. Actual stakes are unknown.

Ticket variant	Result	Leg grades
Parlay A	WIN	Texas A&M W · Texas Tech W · Boston College W
Parlay B	LOSS	Florida State W · Clemson L · Arkansas State W
The upset swing	LOSS	Clemson L · Stanford L · Arkansas State L
Four-team swing	LOSS	Clemson L · Stanford L · Arkansas State L · Missouri W
Five-team moonshot	LOSS	Clemson L · Stanford L · Arkansas State L · Missouri W · Boston College L

390 reconciled finals · Weeks 0–5

Every completed week

Week 6 · 58 frozen finals

Game	Original Matrix	Final	Winner	Margin error	Total error	Spread diagnostic	Total diagnostic
Southern Miss at Troy	18–37	34–55	W	1.13	34.11	W	W
Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State	27–27	27–26	W	0.76	1.72	W	W
New Mexico State at Florida International	24–29	3–22	W	14.36	28.04	L	L
Missouri State at Western Kentucky	22–33	13–34	W	9.36	8.29	W	W
Sam Houston at Liberty	17–40	3–35	W	8.76	18.66	W	L
South Alabama at Arkansas State	26–32	56–49	L	13.35	47.53	L	L
South Florida at UTSA	28–32	24–31	W	2.78	4.88	P	W
Florida State at Louisville	24–27	20–44	W	21.01	12.86	L	L
Iowa at Washington	23–25	41–24	L	19.06	17.44	W	W
Washington State at Utah State	23–26	16–17	W	2.35	16.24	W	L
Wyoming at San Jose State	22–24	16–13	L	4.90	16.88	W	L
Iowa State at BYU	15–33	10–24	W	3.51	13.99	W	W
Arizona at West Virginia	30–22	52–31	W	12.25	30.91	W	L
Indiana at Nebraska	31–20	20–17	W	7.64	14.16	L	W
North Carolina at Pittsburgh	21–28	21–17	L	10.95	11.60	L	L
Sacramento State at Bowling Green	17–30	10–38	W	14.41	0.89	W	W
Texas A&M at Missouri	28–24	6–27	L	24.27	19.19	L	L
Tulane at Army	23–28	17–20	W	1.95	14.26	L	L
UCF at Oklahoma State	20–30	28–42	W	4.46	20.13	L	L
Wake Forest at NC State	24–27	38–14	L	26.97	1.03	L	W
Ball State at Northwestern	4–43	14–45	W	7.85	12.77	L	L
South Carolina at Florida	20–28	38–19	L	27.75	8.79	W	W
Old Dominion at Appalachian State	25–25	10–3	L	7.49	36.74	W	W
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts	34–12	20–19	W	20.99	7.21	L	W
Buffalo at Toledo	19–25	23–8	L	21.40	12.60	W	W
Central Michigan at Ohio	21–21	14–31	W	16.23	2.79	L	W
Charlotte at North Texas	16–41	10–50	W	14.59	2.73	L	L
Duke at Georgia Tech	29–27	25–28	L	5.02	3.95	W	W
Eastern Michigan at Akron	25–22	25–23	W	0.19	0.85	W	W
Houston at Kansas State	27–29	35–16	L	20.69	4.78	W	L
Illinois at Michigan State	30–24	38–37	W	5.03	21.56	L	W
Kent State at Western Michigan	16–32	7–38	W	14.51	2.53	W	W
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	32–26	52–17	W	29.45	11.45	L	L
Stanford at Notre Dame	8–43	7–58	W	16.58	13.69	L	L
Texas at Oklahoma	28–20	24–27	L	10.92	2.91	L	W
Tulsa at Navy	23–32	26–34	W	1.35	4.60	W	W
UCLA at Oregon	17–39	17–15	L	23.98	23.04	L	W
Virginia Tech at California	30–25	20–25	L	10.52	10.03	W	L
UConn at Temple	25–31	34–20	L	19.29	2.29	L	L
Rice at East Carolina	18–31	12–28	W	3.47	9.46	W	W
Maryland at Ohio State	8–41	16–45	W	3.64	12.35	W	L
Tennessee at Arkansas	38–25	24–17	W	5.38	21.88	W	L
San Diego State at Oregon State	22–26	14–66	W	48.00	32.80	L	L
Coastal Carolina at Marshall	26–34	27–21	L	13.61	12.55	L	L
LSU at Kentucky	30–16	34–35	L	15.08	22.73	L	L
Nevada at UTEP	29–19	30–13	W	7.87	4.98	L	W
North Dakota State at UNLV	24–31	7–13	W	1.43	35.34	W	L
UAB at Memphis	21–38	13–38	W	7.49	8.24	W	L
Air Force at Northern Illinois	32–17	28–7	W	6.76	13.96	W	L
Georgia at Alabama	25–23	20–17	W	0.52	11.10	W	W
James Madison at Georgia Southern	31–23	27–24	W	4.82	2.52	W	L
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech	27–30	31–32	W	1.75	6.34	L	W
Syracuse at Virginia	20–27	25–28	W	4.38	5.88	W	L
USC at Penn State	26–28	31–23	L	10.07	0.91	L	W
Minnesota at Purdue	28–21	13–41	L	34.74	4.91	L	L
Hawaii at Arizona State	19–34	12–30	W	3.06	10.56	W	L
Kansas at Utah	21–35	24–41	W	2.84	9.64	N/A	W
Boise State at Fresno State	27–20	38–31	W	0.02	21.66	W	L

Open a week for its original forecasts and final grades. Scores read away–home. Earlier predictions and recorded markets remain frozen.

W = win / correct · L = loss / incorrect · P = push · N/A = no recorded market · No pick = no saved prediction. Spread and total columns compare the original forecast with the recorded pregame market.

Week 559 finalsWinner 43–16

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Opening side	Opening total	Margin error
Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	30–25	13–34	L	L	L	26.2
North Texas at Tulsa	27–31	45–44	L	L	L	5.6
Liberty at Delaware	31–28	30–14	W	L	L	13.5
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	25–29	35–33	L	W	W	6.4
Penn State at Northwestern	27–20	13–34	L	L	W	28.2
Alabama at Mississippi State	31–21	56–23	W	W	L	22.8
Boston College at SMU	18–35	16–25	W	W	W	7.5
Michigan at Minnesota	28–18	14–20	L	L	L	15.3
Middle Tennessee at Kansas	13–42	0–55	W	W	W	26.3
Navy at Air Force	27–27	9–14	L	L	L	5.0
Notre Dame at North Carolina	35–15	37–26	W	W	W	9.2
Stanford at Wake Forest	18–28	3–57	W	L	L	44.9
Syracuse at UConn	29–22	42–41	W	L	L	5.7
UCF at Houston	20–30	17–27	W	W	W	0.3
West Virginia at Iowa State	23–25	42–45	W	W	L	1.3
Michigan State at Wisconsin	21–24	3–31	W	L	L	24.2
Vanderbilt at Georgia	17–38	14–38	W	W	W	2.7
Western Michigan at Buffalo	23–20	20–17	W	W	W	0.4
Toledo at Ball State	29–17	39–24	W	W	L	2.5
Akron at Central Michigan	19–27	17–41	W	W	L	16.3
Auburn at Tennessee	25–30	14–24	W	L	W	4.5
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	15–28	24–20	L	W	W	17.2
California at UNLV	29–29	31–39	W	L	W	7.8
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts	30–20	38–14	W	W	W	14.8
Florida at Missouri	24–25	17–45	W	W	L	27.4
Louisville at NC State	29–25	28–31	L	W	W	6.8
Memphis at Charlotte	43–14	59–8	W	W	W	22.6
Ohio at Kent State	24–20	13–10	W	W	W	1.0
Ohio State at Iowa	31–16	31–14	W	W	W	1.9
Old Dominion at Georgia State	33–20	10–42	L	L	W	45.1
Samford at UAB	30–26	14–33	L	N/A	N/A	22.8
Virginia at Florida State	22–26	7–38	W	W	W	26.6
Wyoming at North Dakota State	16–28	0–28	W	L	W	16.2
Marshall at James Madison	24–35	17–45	W	L	W	17.0
Maryland at Nebraska	21–29	23–48	W	L	L	16.1
UTEP at New Mexico	12–38	7–61	W	W	L	28.4
Kentucky at South Carolina	20–28	35–34	L	L	L	9.8
Purdue at Illinois	20–34	24–17	L	L	W	21.5
Oregon State at Colorado State	24–23	56–26	W	L	L	29.8
Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic	20–38	10–66	W	N/A	N/A	38.6
Arkansas at Texas A&M	19–40	7–34	W	W	L	5.9
BYU at TCU	29–24	17–10	W	L	L	1.9
Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina	29–26	31–24	W	W	W	3.5
UL Monroe at South Alabama	21–35	35–52	W	L	L	3.3
UTSA at Rice	33–23	16–14	W	W	L	8.9
Army at Louisiana Tech	28–25	29–31	L	W	W	4.8
Miami (FL) at Clemson	28–18	41–13	W	L	L	17.4
Temple at South Florida	25–33	17–13	L	L	L	12.5
Texas Tech at Colorado	35–16	29–7	W	W	L	2.5
Utah State at Boise State	18–36	18–37	W	W	W	1.5
Washington at USC	23–31	21–25	W	W	W	4.0
McNeese at LSU	3–45	14–63	W	N/A	N/A	5.5
Arkansas State at Louisiana	28–30	20–23	W	W	L	1.4
Indiana at Rutgers	40–15	47–15	W	W	W	6.6
Fresno State at Washington State	22–21	26–6	W	W	W	19.3
Baylor at Arizona State	25–30	55–19	L	L	W	40.4
Texas State at San Diego State	27–32	29–31	W	W	W	3.4
Cincinnati at Arizona	22–31	7–34	W	W	W	18.0
San Jose State at Hawaii	20–34	20–16	L	L	L	17.3

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 471 finalsWinner 58–13

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Spread diagnostic	O/U diagnostic	Margin error
Liberty at Coastal Carolina	31–26	34–17	W	W	W	12.0
Army at Temple	30–26	21–17	W	W	L	0.3
Howard at Rutgers	15–40	7–58	W	N/A	N/A	25.9
Navy at UAB	37–21	20–24	L	L	L	20.1
Northwestern at Indiana	13–35	23–29	W	L	L	16.0
Clemson at California	28–23	24–10	W	W	W	9.0
Ball State at Kent State	21–29	13–26	W	W	W	5.0
Bucknell at Pittsburgh	9–44	0–59	W	N/A	N/A	23.5
Colorado at Baylor	24–32	13–23	W	P	L	2.4
Colorado State at UTSA	23–31	45–59	W	L	L	5.6
Illinois at Ohio State	13–38	19–42	W	W	L	2.3
Sam Houston at Texas Tech	5–47	14–49	W	W	L	13.7
San Diego State at Toledo	26–19	16–41	L	L	L	31.7
Texas at Tennessee	33–25	20–17	W	L	L	4.6
UNLV at Akron	35–17	38–10	W	W	L	9.9
Virginia Tech at Boston College	32–22	21–14	W	W	L	2.9
Wake Forest at Louisville	19–29	30–27	L	W	W	12.6
South Alabama at Kentucky	17–36	21–45	W	L	L	4.8
Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan	24–27	3–29	W	N/A	N/A	23.8
UCLA at Maryland	26–26	54–3	W	L	L	50.5
Northern Illinois at Georgia State	26–26	14–35	L	L	W	21.5
Notre Dame at Purdue	41–14	49–10	W	L	L	11.9
Central Arkansas at Florida State	14–37	7–34	W	N/A	N/A	4.5
Hawaii at Wyoming	26–22	10–27	L	L	L	21.0
Boise State at Western Michigan	30–19	32–7	W	W	W	14.3
Gardner-Webb at Marshall	24–35	35–36	W	N/A	N/A	10.2
Iowa at Michigan	21–26	20–19	L	L	W	6.6
New Mexico at New Mexico State	33–17	42–18	W	W	W	8.2
Oklahoma at Georgia	19–30	13–41	W	L	W	17.2
Ole Miss at Florida	25–26	28–52	W	L	L	23.0
Robert Morris at Buffalo	19–28	28–31	W	N/A	N/A	6.1
Stonehill at Ohio	18–27	7–35	W	N/A	N/A	19.1
TCU at UCF	27–22	13–21	L	L	L	12.8
UConn at Miami (OH)	20–28	21–24	W	L	W	5.3
Utah at Iowa State	30–20	31–17	W	W	L	3.8
William & Mary at Duke	19–37	7–62	W	N/A	N/A	37.2
Houston at Georgia Southern	36–19	42–28	W	W	L	2.1
North Carolina Central at East Carolina	20–31	9–42	W	N/A	N/A	21.3
Vanderbilt at Auburn	23–29	15–21	W	W	W	0.2
Nebraska at Michigan State	30–22	31–13	W	W	L	10.7
South Florida at Bowling Green	30–20	14–6	W	W	L	2.4
Wisconsin at Penn State	14–30	24–20	L	L	W	20.1
Delaware at Virginia	16–36	3–42	W	W	L	19.3
Incarnate Word at Texas State	29–34	10–63	W	N/A	N/A	48.3
James Madison at Old Dominion	25–23	46–20	W	L	W	24.3
Long Island University at Florida International	21–33	3–20	W	N/A	N/A	4.9
Central Michigan at Miami (FL)	4–43	3–52	W	L	L	9.7
Louisiana at Charlotte	39–18	34–7	W	W	L	6.6
Kansas State at Cincinnati	30–26	26–31	L	W	W	9.6
Kennesaw State at Arkansas State	25–29	14–17	W	W	L	1.3
Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky	19–36	7–52	W	N/A	N/A	28.4
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	18–38	13–23	W	W	L	9.5
Oklahoma State at West Virginia	29–24	41–24	W	W	L	11.7
South Carolina at Alabama	18–28	18–49	W	L	L	21.2
Southern Miss at Tulane	16–37	21–24	W	L	L	17.9
Appalachian State at NC State	19–37	31–41	W	L	W	8.8
Arizona at Washington State	31–17	34–24	W	P	L	3.5
Houston Christian at North Texas	21–35	14–63	W	N/A	N/A	35.0
Oregon at USC	31–26	41–27	W	W	L	9.2
Texas A&M at LSU	22–28	6–35	W	L	W	23.0
Troy at Utah State	26–28	10–21	W	L	L	9.5
Missouri at Mississippi State	30–25	24–31	L	L	W	12.0
Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe	37–21	45–17	W	W	W	11.1
Tulsa at Arkansas	24–35	6–34	W	W	L	16.9
Massachusetts at Sacramento State	22–29	35–6	L	L	L	36.6
Missouri State at SMU	10–43	24–34	W	W	W	23.5
Oregon State at UTEP	30–18	33–7	W	W	W	13.4
Rice at Fresno State	16–30	24–38	W	W	W	0.2
Air Force at Nevada	28–23	36–33	W	W	W	2.2
Georgia Tech at Stanford	27–22	27–34	L	L	W	12.5
Minnesota at Washington	17–30	27–24	L	L	W	15.4

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 375 finalsWinner 64–11Archived spread selections 3–0Archived total selections 3–3

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Spread diagnostic	O/U diagnostic	Margin error
Syracuse at Pittsburgh	19–32	13–27	W	W	W	1.5
Miami (FL) at Wake Forest	31–15	33–20	W	W	W	3.2
Houston at Texas Tech	19–34	26–28	W	L	W	12.4
Portland State at Oregon	5–47	0–84	W	N/A	N/A	34.0
Coastal Carolina at Delaware	26–31	14–22	W	W	L	3.1
Akron at Minnesota	10–35	7–41	W	W	W	8.9
Arizona State at Kansas	27–25	24–17	W	L	L	4.2
Bowling Green at Iowa State	13–30	7–55	W	L	W	30.8
Buffalo at Penn State	9–39	13–55	W	L	L	12.1
Georgia at Arkansas	41–17	45–17	W	L	W	4.2
Kent State at Ohio State	4–46	3–59	W	W	L	2.1
Mercer at Georgia Tech	18–34	11–44	W	N/A	N/A	17.1
North Carolina at Clemson	18–25	20–28	W	W	L	0.9
North Texas at Texas State	30–37	35–49	W	W	W	6.9
Tulane at Kansas State	18–36	20–31	W	W	W	7.1
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin	11–32	10–54	W	L	L	23.3
NC State at Vanderbilt	25–32	31–35	W	W	W	2.6
Wyoming at Central Michigan	22–20	10–24	L	L	L	15.9
Maine at Boston College	18–34	16–22	W	N/A	N/A	10.0
Southern Illinois at Illinois	17–36	10–48	W	N/A	N/A	18.9
Temple at Toledo	26–25	48–49	L	W	W	1.8
Duquesne at Washington State	16–32	7–48	W	N/A	N/A	25.0
Florida State at Alabama	16–30	36–50	W	W	L	0.3
Kentucky at Texas A&M	15–35	31–21	L	L	W	29.9
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	19–29	31–35	W	W	L	6.0
SMU at Louisville	26–27	31–41	W	L	L	8.7
Stonehill at Massachusetts	29–22	14–36	L	N/A	N/A	28.5
USC at Rutgers	39–20	42–35	W	W	L	11.8
UTEP at Michigan	5–44	17–52	W	W	L	4.0
Utah State at Utah	16–39	0–33	W	L	W	10.1
Wagner at California	12–42	7–49	W	N/A	N/A	11.8
Ball State at Liberty	16–37	15–51	W	W	W	15.0
Louisiana Tech at Baylor	22–36	19–36	W	W	W	2.8
Northern Iowa at Iowa	10–39	0–55	W	N/A	N/A	26.7
Stanford at Duke	21–33	7–35	W	W	L	15.8
Western Kentucky at Indiana	9–46	0–38	W	W	W	1.6
Mississippi State at South Carolina	22–31	41–34	L	L	L	16.0
Southeastern Louisiana at UL Monroe	30–22	38–35	W	N/A	N/A	5.3
Charlotte at Appalachian State	16–39	21–26	W	L	L	17.9
East Carolina at Old Dominion	24–24	20–17	W	W	W	2.8
Florida International at Florida Atlantic	26–35	10–16	W	L	W	3.4
Marshall at Missouri State	34–25	30–24	W	W	W	2.9
Delaware State at South Florida	15–40	17–59	W	N/A	N/A	16.4
Florida at Auburn	23–23	44–39	W	L	L	4.5
Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State	26–30	27–31	W	W	W	0.3
Georgia State at UCF	13–40	30–44	W	L	W	13.4
Murray State at Oklahoma State	9–44	0–59	W	N/A	N/A	23.9
Nevada at Middle Tennessee	31–20	20–27	L	L	L	18.7
Nicholls at Sam Houston	31–22	0–59	L	N/A	N/A	67.5
Ohio at South Alabama	23–26	36–41	W	W	L	2.0
Troy at Missouri	15–37	17–27	W	W	L	12.0
UConn at Southern Miss	32–22	48–20	W	W	L	18.1
UT Martin at Memphis	21–35	21–45	W	N/A	N/A	10.3
Western Michigan at Rice	26–20	28–21	W	W	W	1.6
Eastern Washington at Washington	9–41	16–48	W	N/A	N/A	0.0
North Dakota at Nebraska	16–35	7–34	W	N/A	N/A	8.1
BYU at Colorado State	35–13	41–23	W	W	L	3.6
Colorado at Northwestern	20–27	7–41	W	W	L	27.1
LSU at Ole Miss	28–23	24–32	L	L	W	13.6
Michigan State at Notre Dame	13–41	10–27	W	W	L	11.7
New Mexico at Oklahoma	15–33	6–14	W	W	L	10.5
Virginia Tech at Maryland	27–24	35–26	W	L	L	6.3
West Virginia at Virginia	21–28	38–27	L	W	L	17.7
Kennesaw State at Tennessee	15–43	9–42	W	W	W	4.5
Arkansas State at TCU	18–38	7–31	W	W	W	3.8
East Texas A&M at Tulsa	19–33	0–42	W	N/A	N/A	27.7
UAB at Louisiana	24–36	14–21	W	L	L	4.4
UTSA at Texas	13–44	6–30	W	L	W	6.4
James Madison at San Diego State	23–26	26–13	L	L	L	15.8
South Dakota at Boise State	19–34	24–38	W	N/A	N/A	0.6
North Dakota State at Sacramento State	36–15	31–10	W	W	L	0.1
Northern Illinois at Arizona	9–40	17–42	W	W	L	5.9
Fresno State at San Jose State	28–19	26–10	W	W	W	7.0
Montana at Oregon State	25–25	17–52	L	N/A	N/A	35.2
Purdue at UCLA	20–33	38–52	W	P	W	0.9

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 286 finalsWinner 72–14Archived spread selections 5–4Archived total selections 3–1

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Spread diagnostic	O/U diagnostic	Margin error
Florida A&M at Miami (FL)	6–44	7–77	W	N/A	N/A	31.5
Missouri at Kansas	31–21	38–21	W	N/A	N/A	7.9
Norfolk State at Virginia	9–40	3–59	W	N/A	N/A	24.8
Richmond at NC State	18–36	0–73	W	N/A	N/A	55.5
Rutgers at Boston College	28–29	21–28	W	N/A	N/A	5.9
Villanova at Louisville	16–35	13–59	W	N/A	N/A	26.2
Alabama at Kentucky	28–16	45–17	W	N/A	N/A	16.8
Alabama State at Troy	19–34	17–34	W	N/A	N/A	1.9
Appalachian State at East Carolina	20–32	27–24	L	N/A	N/A	15.4
Arizona at BYU	22–30	17–28	W	N/A	N/A	2.7
Arizona State at Texas A&M	18–34	20–48	W	N/A	N/A	11.6
Arkansas at Utah	25–35	10–43	W	N/A	N/A	23.0
Bowling Green at Nebraska	11–35	7–56	W	N/A	N/A	25.4
Buffalo at Florida International	24–25	20–33	W	N/A	N/A	12.0
Cal Poly at San Jose State	22–31	20–30	W	N/A	N/A	1.1
California at Syracuse	26–26	21–18	W	N/A	N/A	2.1
Campbell at Florida	6–42	3–52	W	N/A	N/A	12.7
Central Connecticut State at Toledo	18–30	10–63	W	N/A	N/A	41.3
Charlotte at Ole Miss	6–48	9–41	W	N/A	N/A	10.0
Colgate at Central Michigan	21–28	10–13	W	N/A	N/A	3.9
Delaware at Vanderbilt	17–42	26–35	W	N/A	N/A	15.7
Duke at Illinois	26–32	31–27	L	N/A	N/A	9.9
East Tennessee State at North Carolina	13–35	3–35	W	N/A	N/A	9.7
Eastern Michigan at Michigan State	17–35	7–35	W	N/A	N/A	10.2
Fordham at Coastal Carolina	24–30	7–45	W	N/A	N/A	31.7
Gardner-Webb at Liberty	21–34	23–24	W	N/A	N/A	11.0
Georgia Southern at Clemson	14–36	7–22	W	N/A	N/A	7.0
Grambling State at TCU	11–42	7–63	W	N/A	N/A	25.1
Holy Cross at Miami (OH)	16–30	7–45	W	N/A	N/A	24.3
Howard at Indiana	5–47	0–55	W	N/A	N/A	13.0
Illinois State at Northern Illinois	29–19	28–24	W	N/A	N/A	5.6
Iowa State at Iowa	15–31	13–16	W	N/A	N/A	13.2
Jacksonville State at Ohio	25–22	27–29	L	N/A	N/A	5.1
Kennesaw State at Georgia State	36–20	17–31	L	N/A	N/A	29.6
Lindenwood at Missouri State	27–25	14–48	L	N/A	N/A	36.2
Louisiana at USC	14–45	30–49	W	N/A	N/A	11.9
Louisiana Tech at LSU	8–41	14–45	W	N/A	N/A	2.3
Maryland at UConn	32–19	38–14	W	N/A	N/A	11.2
Memphis at Boise State	22–34	20–38	W	N/A	N/A	6.5
Mercyhurst at New Mexico	12–39	7–70	W	N/A	N/A	35.9
Middle Tennessee at Marshall	18–41	26–28	W	N/A	N/A	21.0
Mississippi State at Minnesota	23–27	38–13	L	N/A	N/A	29.0
Monmouth at Western Michigan	18–30	14–49	W	N/A	N/A	22.9
Montana State at Nevada	26–23	20–7	W	N/A	N/A	9.6
Navy at Florida Atlantic	32–27	30–38	L	N/A	N/A	13.6
New Mexico State at Hawaii	19–34	19–29	W	N/A	N/A	5.8
North Dakota State at Air Force	25–26	38–32	L	N/A	N/A	7.1
Northern Colorado at Wyoming	17–29	13–21	W	N/A	N/A	4.0
Ohio State at Texas	28–22	23–24	L	N/A	N/A	6.8
Oklahoma at Michigan	23–24	10–17	W	N/A	N/A	6.3
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech	16–33	21–44	W	N/A	N/A	5.6
Oregon at Oklahoma State	36–17	31–39	L	N/A	N/A	27.1
Penn State at Temple	40–17	27–9	W	N/A	N/A	4.8
Prairie View A&M at Baylor	17–39	3–44	W	N/A	N/A	18.7
Rice at Notre Dame	5–47	0–52	W	N/A	N/A	10.0
Robert Morris at Akron	24–25	10–45	W	N/A	N/A	34.0
Sacramento State at Fresno State	13–34	3–49	W	N/A	N/A	25.0
Sacred Heart at Massachusetts	29–22	10–37	L	N/A	N/A	33.5
San Diego State at UCLA	20–31	10–28	W	N/A	N/A	7.2
South Alabama at Tulane	22–32	24–28	W	N/A	N/A	6.2
South Florida at Army	26–29	28–24	L	N/A	N/A	7.0
Southern at Houston	10–43	6–77	W	N/A	N/A	37.8
Southern Miss at Auburn	7–44	8–43	W	N/A	N/A	1.9
Southern Utah at Colorado State	20–28	24–58	W	N/A	N/A	25.8
Stony Brook at Ball State	28–22	17–41	L	N/A	N/A	29.4
Tennessee at Georgia Tech	32–25	45–24	W	N/A	N/A	13.8
Texas Southern at UTEP	24–26	10–51	W	N/A	N/A	39.5
Texas Tech at Oregon State	37–11	35–24	W	N/A	N/A	14.9
Towson at South Carolina	11–39	9–45	W	N/A	N/A	8.2
Tulsa at Sam Houston	36–19	23–17	W	N/A	N/A	11.9
UC Davis at SMU	15–38	10–56	W	N/A	N/A	22.8
UCF at Pittsburgh	21–30	7–12	W	N/A	N/A	3.8
UL Monroe at UAB	23–33	20–26	W	N/A	N/A	3.3
UNLV at North Texas	37–24	6–44	L	N/A	N/A	50.5
UT Martin at West Virginia	19–33	7–52	W	N/A	N/A	30.7
UTSA at Texas State	35–33	31–26	W	N/A	N/A	3.3
Utah State at Washington	13–39	14–16	W	N/A	N/A	23.3
Wagner at James Madison	14–38	3–87	W	N/A	N/A	60.7
Wake Forest at Purdue	26–21	38–36	W	N/A	N/A	2.5
Washington State at Kansas State	16–35	7–34	W	N/A	N/A	8.5
Weber State at Colorado	17–34	21–52	W	N/A	N/A	13.4
West Georgia at Arkansas State	23–32	7–52	W	N/A	N/A	36.4
Western Carolina at Cincinnati	18–35	10–62	W	N/A	N/A	35.4
Western Illinois at Wisconsin	8–37	9–36	W	N/A	N/A	2.2
Western Kentucky at Georgia	9–45	20–70	W	N/A	N/A	14.0
Wofford at Kent State	26–26	15–36	W	N/A	N/A	20.7

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 191 finalsWinner 80–10Archived spread selections 53–37–1Archived total selections 44–47

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Spread diagnostic	O/U diagnostic	Margin error
Clemson at LSU	17–28	10–51	W	W	L	30.4
Louisville at Ole Miss	24–29	38–41	W	L	L	2.1
SMU at Florida State	26–26	27–24	L	P	W	3.4
Baylor at Auburn	23–31	16–17	W	L	W	7.1
Wisconsin at Notre Dame	No pick	13–41	NO PICK	W	L	—
Boise State at Oregon	14–39	27–34	W	L	W	17.7
Colorado at Georgia Tech	21–30	14–13	L	L	L	9.4
UNLV at Hawaii	30–28	21–6	W	W	L	12.8
UCLA at California	27–27	45–24	L	L	W	21.4
Washington State at Washington	12–35	10–24	W	L	W	8.4
Miami (FL) at Stanford	33–14	45–6	W	L	L	19.4
East Carolina at Alabama	12–34	10–48	W	L	L	16.4
Liberty at James Madison	24–31	13–20	W	W	L	0.2
Texas State at Texas	15–48	7–59	W	W	W	18.5
Fresno State at USC	14–36	0–39	W	W	W	17.1
Western Michigan at Michigan	10–36	12–13	W	L	W	24.5
South Dakota State at Northwestern	17–31	18–34	W	W	W	2.8
North Texas at Indiana	8–48	16–52	W	L	W	4.1
Tulane at Duke	21–34	3–17	W	W	L	1.0
Oklahoma State at Tulsa	34–21	10–24	L	L	W	27.2
Marshall at Penn State	17–42	0–45	W	W	L	19.9
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt	13–42	9–28	W	L	W	10.6
Florida Atlantic at Florida	15–40	21–66	W	W	L	20.3
Ohio at Nebraska	10–34	21–49	W	W	L	4.3
Toledo at Michigan State	18–31	20–30	W	W	W	2.9
Ball State at Ohio State	4–46	3–56	W	L	L	11.0
UTEP at Oklahoma	4–43	0–51	W	W	L	11.5
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh	18–29	14–59	W	L	L	34.0
Boston College at Cincinnati	23–31	15–34	W	W	L	11.2
Wyoming at Colorado State	19–23	13–35	W	W	L	18.6
Oregon State at Houston	16–35	20–33	W	L	W	5.7
Youngstown State at Kentucky	18–31	13–45	W	W	W	18.2
Kent State at South Carolina	7–42	0–57	W	W	L	22.4
UAB at Illinois	14–43	23–42	W	L	W	10.8
Central Michigan at New Mexico	19–31	7–38	W	W	L	19.0
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia	19–35	24–31	W	L	W	9.1
Tennessee State at Georgia	5–47	3–63	W	W	L	18.0
Furman at Tennessee	8–50	9–56	W	W	W	5.0
Missouri State at Texas A&M	6–47	0–50	W	W	W	8.3
UL Monroe at Mississippi State	12–43	13–62	W	W	W	18.2
Abilene Christian at Texas Tech	6–45	10–33	W	L	W	15.4
Arkansas State at Memphis	23–35	24–42	W	W	W	6.0
Western Kentucky at Nevada	28–24	14–49	L	L	W	39.4
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri	5–46	14–54	W	L	L	0.9
Northern Illinois at Iowa	6–39	0–40	W	W	L	7.0
Northern Arizona at Arizona	11–42	7–35	W	L	W	3.0
Florida International at South Florida	22–36	9–19	W	L	L	3.8
Akron at Wake Forest	10–35	16–38	W	L	L	3.2
Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State	17–32	10–38	W	L	W	13.2
San Jose State at Eastern Michigan	24–28	27–21	L	L	W	9.7
Massachusetts at Rutgers	10–45	37–21	L	L	W	51.0
Idaho at Utah	15–38	14–66	W	W	L	28.9
Rhode Island at Temple	22–34	14–38	W	W	W	12.1
Nicholls at Kansas State	6–48	3–71	W	W	L	26.0
Utah Tech at BYU	5–47	7–63	W	W	L	14.0
Tarleton State at Bowling Green	25–22	20–13	W	W	W	4.9
Lamar at Louisiana	20–36	7–38	W	W	L	15.9
Sam Houston at Troy	16–39	21–24	W	L	L	20.1
VMI at Virginia Tech	5–47	3–73	W	W	L	28.0
New Hampshire at Syracuse	19–30	3–66	W	W	L	52.0
Bethune-Cookman at UCF	12–37	6–73	W	W	L	41.1
Hampton at Maryland	4–46	0–62	W	W	L	20.0
North Alabama at Arkansas	8–50	14–31	W	L	W	24.4
Morgan State at Arizona State	5–45	7–70	W	W	L	23.3
Long Island at Kansas	10–43	6–51	W	W	L	11.5
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota	9–39	7–59	W	W	L	21.9
Indiana State at Purdue	14–37	19–44	W	L	L	1.9
Idaho State at Utah State	21–33	29–17	L	L	W	24.1
UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA	15–42	16–45	W	W	L	2.4
Towson at Navy	11–42	15–42	W	L	W	3.9
SE Louisiana at South Alabama	25–31	14–39	W	W	W	18.7
Portland State at San Diego State	7–42	20–53	W	L	L	2.0
Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern	14–40	0–31	W	W	L	5.2
West Georgia at Kennesaw State	22–30	0–47	W	W	L	39.4
Duquesne at Air Force	16–37	0–34	W	W	W	12.8
Fordham at North Dakota State	4–46	0–38	W	L	W	4.0
Norfolk State at Old Dominion	5–43	10–31	W	L	W	17.7
Bryant at Army	17–35	3–59	W	W	W	38.2
Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State	22–33	7–49	W	W	W	31.0
Maine at Appalachian State	18–36	3–55	W	W	L	33.7
Lafayette at UConn	23–29	7–56	W	W	L	43.2
Merrimack at Delaware	24–32	7–42	W	W	W	26.9
Houston Christian at Rice	9–41	3–31	W	W	L	4.3
Murray State at Middle Tennessee	21–32	14–38	W	W	W	12.9
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech	6–47	6–80	W	W	L	32.9
Mercyhurst at New Mexico State	13–38	14–51	W	W	L	11.6
Albany at Buffalo	22–25	17–21	W	L	W	0.8
Alcorn State at Southern Miss	19–35	3–49	W	W	W	30.4
The Citadel at Charlotte	21–31	43–41	L	L	W	11.3
North Carolina A&T at Georgia State	29–28	10–59	L	L	L	49.4
Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State	10–42	0–52	W	W	W	20.2

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 08 finalsWinner 6–2

Game	Prediction	Final	Winner	Spread diagnostic	O/U diagnostic	Margin error
Hawaii at Stanford	23–28	27–37	W	N/A	N/A	5.5
Jacksonville State at North Dakota State	22–32	7–33	W	N/A	N/A	16.6
Memphis at UNLV	27–34	27–21	L	N/A	N/A	12.9
NC State at Virginia	25–26	8–34	W	N/A	N/A	24.3
New Mexico State at Florida State	11–39	17–34	W	N/A	N/A	10.8
Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan	20–32	17–28	W	N/A	N/A	0.1
San Jose State at USC	10–46	26–42	W	N/A	N/A	19.9
TCU at North Carolina	27–22	10–15	L	N/A	N/A	10.4

Market grades require a recorded pregame line.

Week 6 closeout

Week 7 preparation

Week 6 is complete for all 138 teams. The refit uses 329 earlier FBS results; preseason influence decreases as games accumulate. All 62 Week 7 games are screened. Player availability and weather factors accompany the published forecasts.

Open Week 7 projections → · Open the selection review →

Updated after Week 6

Ratings that learn through the season

Our power ratings now blend the preseason starting point with opponent-adjusted game results. Recent FBS games carry more weight, and unusually large score gaps receive less weight. Teams can move more as season evidence builds.

We will evaluate the frozen forecasts weekly throughout our first season. The early comparison improved margin error by 0.34 points over Weeks 4–5, but the sample is short and missed two original improvement targets. Earlier forecasts and grades remain unchanged. Player availability and total forecasts appear with each matchup.