Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Jason Candle inherits a roster returning only one starter and must integrate an exceptionally large transfer class. The schedule remains manageable, but quarterback and two-deep cohesion create a wide range.
MPR #101Projected Wins #84Independent MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-8.7National #101
Projected Wins5.85National #84
Schedule Strength#94National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-5.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-8.39 → -8.73-0.34 MPR
Rank#99 → #101-2 spots
Projected Wins5.82 → 5.85Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Massachusetts 35–16. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.45
Current Win-Total Gap+0.40
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -8.73 = OFF 21.15 − DEF 31.75 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 1.22. Sigma 3.95.
