Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Liam Szarka and eight returning starters support a rebound in the option system, but the defense remains the limiting unit.
MPR #79Projected Wins #31Mountain West MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-2.2National #79
Projected Wins8.18National #31
Schedule Strength#103National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense22.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+6.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.85 → -2.24-1.39 MPR
Rank#72 → #79-7 spots
Projected Wins8.95 → 8.18Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Wyoming 14–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.24
Current Win-Total Gap+0.94
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -2.24 = OFF 25.45 − DEF 27.80 + ST -0.00 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 0.01. Sigma 2.88.
