Matrix Power Rating-20.2National #129
Projected Wins2.66National #131
Schedule Strength#76National SOS rank
Projected Offense16.6Points per game
Projected Defense32.4Points allowed
Point Differential-15.8Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-20.2 → -20.2
Projected Wins2.66 → 2.66
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (2 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total3.5
Effective Market3.34
Adjusted Edge-0.68
SignalReview
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 12TSTexas SouthernHome · Nonconference — FCS54%Win %26–24Baseline score+1.5Margin50.5TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26OSOregon StateHome · Nonconference23%Win %18–30Baseline score-11.0Margin47.9TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 3NMNew MexicoAway · Mountain West6%Win %14–37Baseline score-22.8Margin50.4TotalMediumFBSOpponent
OCT 17SJSan Jose StateHome · Mountain West43%Win %24–27Baseline score-2.7Margin50.8TotalLowFBSOpponent
OCT 31NDNorth Dakota StateAway · Mountain West7%Win %14–36Baseline score-21.7Margin49.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 20AFAir ForceAway · Mountain West8%Win %15–36Baseline score-20.9Margin51.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 28NINorthern IllinoisAway · Mountain West39%Win %21–25Baseline score-4.1Margin46.8TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.