Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The Miners added portal volume and EJ Colson brings upside, but one returning offensive starter and a brutal nonconference slate suppress the full-season projection.
MPR #132Projected Wins #135Mountain West MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-23.5National #132
Projected Wins1.87National #135
Schedule Strength#77National SOS rank
Projected Offense16.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-16.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-23.73 → -23.50+0.23 MPR
Rank#132 → #132+0 spots
Projected Wins1.86 → 1.87Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (2 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.34
Current Win-Total Gap-1.48
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -23.50 = OFF 13.85 − DEF 35.10 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.30 + season adjustment -2.05. Sigma 3.55.
