Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defense has pieces and the run game can travel, but an interim staff, zero returning defensive starters and extreme geographic travel create a low floor.
MPR #128Projected Wins #138Mountain West MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-21.5National #128
Projected Wins1.22National #138
Schedule Strength#78National SOS rank
Projected Offense17.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-13.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-20.36 → -21.48-1.12 MPR
Rank#126 → #128-2 spots
Projected Wins1.56 → 1.22Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Hawaii 21–56. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (1 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.57
Current Win-Total Gap-2.35
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -21.48 = OFF 13.60 − DEF 31.70 + ST -0.45 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -3.08. Sigma 3.89.
