Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Cameran Brown adds stability at quarterback, while a major defensive rebuild and one of the nation's lowest baselines keep the outlook modest.
MPR #126Projected Wins #97Sun Belt MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-20.2National #126
Projected Wins5.25National #97
Schedule Strength#116National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense34.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-20.49 → -20.18+0.30 MPR
Rank#127 → #126+1 spots
Projected Wins5.40 → 5.25Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Arkansas State 32–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Georgia State news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.82
Current Win-Total Gap+1.43
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -20.18 = OFF 19.00 − DEF 40.05 + ST -0.45 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment 1.12. Sigma 2.80.
