Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Max Johnson and defensive continuity help, but a rebuilt offensive line and only one returning offensive starter cap the median.
MPR #93Projected Wins #79Sun Belt MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-6.9National #93
Projected Wins6.08National #79
Schedule Strength#91National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-6.55 → -6.86-0.32 MPR
Rank#90 → #93-3 spots
Projected Wins6.16 → 6.08Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.3 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.79
Current Win-Total Gap+1.29
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -6.86 = OFF 23.05 − DEF 31.65 + ST 0.00 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 1.64. Sigma 2.38.
