Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, six returning offensive starters and Tony Gibson raise the offensive floor; defense and special teams remain the swing areas.
MPR #107Projected Wins #57Sun Belt MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-9.8National #107
Projected Wins7.01National #57
Schedule Strength#127National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.28 → -9.75+0.52 MPR
Rank#108 → #107+1 spots
Projected Wins6.97 → 7.01Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat South Alabama 20–13. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.38
Current Win-Total Gap-0.37
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -9.75 = OFF 28.00 − DEF 35.80 + ST 0.25 + legacy residual -0.15 + season adjustment -2.05. Sigma 2.60.
