Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Rocco Becht and the Big Ten's largest transfer class help reload a thin returning core, while a new head coach and coordinators increase uncertainty.
MPR #19Projected Wins #61Big Ten MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating14.2National #19
Projected Wins6.77National #61
Schedule Strength#61National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense19.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+11.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR14.14 → 14.23+0.09 MPR
Rank#19 → #19+0 spots
Projected Wins6.76 → 6.77Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.83
Current Win-Total Gap-2.06
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 14.23 = OFF 32.68 − DEF 18.03 + ST 0.75 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment -1.12. Sigma 3.00.
