Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A strong transfer class and four returning defensive starters provide a credible rebound path; first-time quarterback play remains the largest uncertainty.
MPR #116Projected Wins #52MAC MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-12.4National #116
Projected Wins7.24National #52
Schedule Strength#129National SOS rank
Projected Offense23.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense20.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-12.64 → -12.39+0.25 MPR
Rank#115 → #116-1 spots
Projected Wins6.83 → 7.24Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Bowling Green 31–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.89
Current Win-Total Gap+1.35
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -12.39 = OFF 15.85 − DEF 27.95 + ST 0.50 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment -0.89. Sigma 3.08.
