Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The conference's largest transfer class can replace lost production quickly, but one returning starter and a new staff create the MAC's most extreme high-upside rebuild.
MPR #100Projected Wins #18MAC MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-8.7National #100
Projected Wins8.98National #18
Schedule Strength#136National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense16.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+11.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-9.35 → -8.67+0.69 MPR
Rank#103 → #100+3 spots
Projected Wins8.36 → 8.98Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Western Michigan 45–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.67
Current Win-Total Gap+1.31
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -8.67 = OFF 17.50 − DEF 27.55 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment 1.48. Sigma 3.61.
