Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Only three starters return and the program is changing coaches and systems, making the median lower and the outcome range unusually wide.
MPR #71Projected Wins #129Big Ten MPR #17Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-0.4National #71
Projected Wins2.88National #129
Schedule Strength#22National SOS rank
Projected Offense19.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-12.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.15 → -0.37-0.21 MPR
Rank#70 → #71-1 spots
Projected Wins3.06 → 2.88Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to UCLA 10–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Michigan State news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.18
Current Win-Total Gap-1.30
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -0.37 = OFF 26.45 − DEF 25.73 + ST -0.62 + legacy residual -0.00 + season adjustment -0.47. Sigma 3.68.
