Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A large positive portal class and Bob Chesney create real upside, but extensive turnover makes immediate integration highly uncertain.
MPR #33Projected Wins #13Big Ten MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating10.1National #33
Projected Wins9.79National #13
Schedule Strength#44National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR9.88 → 10.08+0.20 MPR
Rank#31 → #33-2 spots
Projected Wins9.61 → 9.79Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Michigan State 28–10. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
12
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.32
Current Win-Total Gap+3.47
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 10.08 = OFF 31.84 − DEF 23.74 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment 1.88. Sigma 2.93.
