Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Fourteen returning starters create one of the league's best continuity profiles, although the roster still lacks top-end proven depth.
MPR #61Projected Wins #123Big Ten MPR #15Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating1.9National #61
Projected Wins3.76National #123
Schedule Strength#32National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR1.86 → 1.94+0.08 MPR
Rank#62 → #61+1 spots
Projected Wins3.80 → 3.76Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Maryland news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.37
Current Win-Total Gap-1.61
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 1.94 = OFF 26.05 − DEF 22.99 + ST 0.54 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment -1.61. Sigma 2.44.
