Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Julian Sayin, eight returning offensive starters and elite portal quality support the nation's highest rating despite coordinator change.
MPR #1Projected Wins #4Big Ten MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating32.4National #1
Projected Wins10.36National #4
Schedule Strength#19National SOS rank
Projected Offense33.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense16.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+17.8Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17Ohio State returns home for Kent State Saturday; no verified Monday availability ruling warrants another mean adjustment.
current Week 2 context/Sigma treatment remains. Kent State–Ohio State UNDER 58.5 was excluded from the final Signal Board; no further review is scheduled.
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR32.18 → 32.35+0.17 MPR
Rank#1 → #1+0 spots
Projected Wins10.31 → 10.36Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (11 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total9.5
Preseason Effective Market9.77
Current Win-Total Gap+0.59
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 32.35 = OFF 40.16 − DEF 8.82 + ST 0.15 + legacy residual -0.45 + season adjustment 1.30. Sigma 2.07.
