Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Josh Hoover, a strongly positive portal exchange and Curt Cignetti's repeatable transfer integration preserve a high ceiling after Mendoza.
MPR #4Projected Wins #2Big Ten MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating25.1National #4
Projected Wins10.46National #2
Schedule Strength#41National SOS rank
Projected Offense34.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense16.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+18.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR25.16 → 25.14-0.02 MPR
Rank#4 → #4+0 spots
Projected Wins10.15 → 10.46Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Michigan 13–6. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (11 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total10.5
Preseason Effective Market10.40
Current Win-Total Gap+0.05
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 25.14 = OFF 38.05 − DEF 13.36 + ST 0.86 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment -0.41. Sigma 1.65.
