Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Tyson Helton's repeatable offensive reload and a favorable league slate offset limited returning starters, keeping WKU among the title contenders.
MPR #94Projected Wins #81Conference USA MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-7.2National #94
Projected Wins6.03National #81
Schedule Strength#98National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-7.24 → -7.16+0.08 MPR
Rank#96 → #94+2 spots
Projected Wins6.08 → 6.03Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Western Kentucky news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.24
Current Win-Total Gap-1.20
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -7.16 = OFF 24.80 − DEF 33.10 + ST 0.55 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment 0.59. Sigma 3.34.
