Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Fourteen returning starters, elite defensive structure and Kirby Smart produce the SEC's lowest fragility profile.
MPR #3Projected Wins #8SEC MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating27.3National #3
Projected Wins10.03National #8
Schedule Strength#21National SOS rank
Projected Offense32.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense18.6Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+14.2Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR27.41 → 27.31-0.10 MPR
Rank#3 → #3+0 spots
Projected Wins10.04 → 10.03Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total9.5
Preseason Effective Market9.86
Current Win-Total Gap+0.17
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 27.31 = OFF 39.05 − DEF 12.70 + ST 0.65 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 0.06. Sigma 1.55.
