Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Clark Lea and continuity provide a floor, but replacing Diego Pavia with a low-confidence freshman projection materially lowers the offense.
MPR #51Projected Wins #119SEC MPR #16Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating5.2National #51
Projected Wins4.03National #119
Schedule Strength#17National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.88 → 5.16-0.71 MPR
Rank#47 → #51-4 spots
Projected Wins4.44 → 4.03Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Kentucky 17–34. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.65
Current Win-Total Gap-1.63
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 5.16 = OFF 32.45 − DEF 24.10 + ST 0.75 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment -4.19. Sigma 2.86.
