Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Byrum Brown's system familiarity with Alex Golesh is a portable quarterback/coaching advantage that offsets extreme roster turnover.
MPR #30Projected Wins #60SEC MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating11.1National #30
Projected Wins6.78National #60
Schedule Strength#11National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense24.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR12.25 → 11.15-1.10 MPR
Rank#24 → #30-6 spots
Projected Wins7.19 → 6.78Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to LSU 17–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.54
Current Win-Total Gap+0.24
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 11.15 = OFF 29.90 − DEF 18.35 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment -0.85. Sigma 2.70.
