Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Transfer talent helps, but quarterback volatility and recent program-level underperformance reduce the median.
MPR #53Projected Wins #85Big 12 MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating4.8National #53
Projected Wins5.80National #85
Schedule Strength#46National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.20 → 4.82-0.37 MPR
Rank#51 → #53-2 spots
Projected Wins6.30 → 5.80Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Kansas 24–25. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.88
Current Win-Total Gap-0.08
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 4.82 = OFF 31.85 − DEF 28.41 + ST 0.56 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment 0.82. Sigma 2.74.
