Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Incoming talent is offset by youth at quarterback, no returning defensive starters and persistent roster churn.
MPR #77Projected Wins #125Big 12 MPR #16Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-1.4National #77
Projected Wins3.57National #125
Schedule Strength#31National SOS rank
Projected Offense22.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.4Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-7.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.01 → -1.45-1.44 MPR
Rank#68 → #77-9 spots
Projected Wins4.02 → 3.57Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Oklahoma State 24–57. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Colorado news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.12
Current Win-Total Gap-0.55
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -1.45 = OFF 25.22 − DEF 25.50 + ST -0.52 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment -0.90. Sigma 3.52.
