Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: A veteran quarterback and offensive continuity nearly offset a first-time head coach and defensive pass-rush losses.
MPR #42Projected Wins #66Big 12 MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating7.6National #42
Projected Wins6.62National #66
Schedule Strength#66National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+0.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR8.54 → 7.64-0.90 MPR
Rank#38 → #42-4 spots
Projected Wins7.25 → 6.62Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Arizona State 17–28. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.9 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.28
Current Win-Total Gap-1.66
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 7.64 = OFF 33.15 − DEF 23.12 + ST 0.28 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment -2.66. Sigma 2.45.
