Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Experienced transfer quarterback helps, but translation to the Big 12 and limited defensive continuity add risk.
MPR #54Projected Wins #55Big 12 MPR #11Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating4.5National #54
Projected Wins7.04National #55
Schedule Strength#36National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense28.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-3.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR3.03 → 4.52+1.50 MPR
Rank#56 → #54+2 spots
Projected Wins5.92 → 7.04Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Texas Tech 37–24. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.20
Current Win-Total Gap+1.84
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 4.52 = OFF 29.46 − DEF 25.57 + ST 0.21 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 0.37. Sigma 2.26.
