Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Bill O'Brien and a veteran transfer quarterback help stabilize a roster with only five returning starters; the road-heavy ACC slate suppresses the ceiling.
MPR #63Projected Wins #94ACC MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating1.1National #63
Projected Wins5.33National #94
Schedule Strength#25National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-12.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.10 → 1.15+1.25 MPR
Rank#69 → #63+6 spots
Projected Wins4.58 → 5.33Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Georgia Tech 49–27. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.42
Current Win-Total Gap+1.91
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 1.15 = OFF 25.45 − DEF 27.35 + ST 0.50 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 2.45. Sigma 2.51.
