2026 MATRIXWEEK 9138 FBS TEAMS56 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
GT
ACC · Yellow Jackets · 2-5

Georgia Tech

Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.

Preseason roster reference: Brent Key's development record remains a positive, but an inexperienced projected quarterback and Tennessee-Georgia nonconference pair create downside.

MPR #57Projected Wins #127ACC MPR #12Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating2.8National #57
Projected Wins3.39National #127
Schedule Strength#28National SOS rank
Projected Offense20.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense30.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-10.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update

Model Response

Moved Down

The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.

Week-over-Week MPR3.86 → 2.80-1.06 MPR
Rank#53 → #57-4 spots
Projected Wins4.13 → 3.39Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE

Lost to Boston College 27–49. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.

External Headlines

Latest Georgia Tech news.

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Outcome Range

Season Distribution

Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.

Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
2
3
4
5
6
The gold bar is the current mode (3 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote

The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.

Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.36
Current Win-Total Gap-2.97
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game

2026 Schedule Matrix

Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.

DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 3ColoradoHome · NonconferenceFINALGame Status13–14Final · Pregame Matrix 30–21+8.4Margin51.3TotalFINALFBSOpponent
SEP 12TennesseeHome · NonconferenceFINALGame Status24–45Final · Pregame Matrix 25–32-21.0Final Margin57.2TotalFINALFBSOpponent
SEP 19MercerHome · NonconferenceFINALGame Status44–11Final · Pregame Matrix 34–18+15.9Margin52.1TotalFINALFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
SEP 26StanfordAway · ACCFINALGame Status27–34Final · Pregame Matrix 27–22+5.5Margin49.4TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 10DukeHome · ACCFINALGame Status28–25Final · Pregame Matrix 27–29-2.0Margin57.0TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 17Virginia TechAway · ACCFINALGame Status24–34Final · Pregame Matrix 23–31-7.9Margin53.2TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 24Boston CollegeHome · ACCFINALGame Status27–49Final · Pregame Matrix 30–23+6.4Margin52.8TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 31PittsburghAway · ACC35%Win %24–30Current projection-5.7Margin53.5TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 7LouisvilleHome · ACC32%Win %23–29Current projection-6.8Margin52.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14ClemsonAway · ACC25%Win %19–29Current projection-10.0Margin48.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 21Wake ForestHome · ACC43%Win %23–26Current projection-2.7Margin49.0TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28GeorgiaAway · Nonconference4%Win %13–40Current projection-26.9Margin52.2TotalHighFBSOpponent
Upcoming games use current ratings. Completed games preserve their original forecast and final result.
← All Teams

Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.

Active net power 2.80 = OFF 28.45 − DEF 24.05 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual -0.05 + season adjustment -2.15. Sigma 3.15.