Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Ten returning starters and Jake Dickert's system provide a floor, but the offense remains modest and the Cal-SMU-Georgia Tech road sequence is difficult.
MPR #40Projected Wins #16ACC MPR #7Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating8.0National #40
Projected Wins9.20National #16
Schedule Strength#68National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense20.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+7.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR8.40 → 8.04-0.36 MPR
Rank#39 → #40-1 spots
Projected Wins9.25 → 9.20Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.4 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Wake Forest news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total5.5
Preseason Effective Market5.70
Current Win-Total Gap+3.51
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 8.04 = OFF 25.50 − DEF 20.55 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 2.89. Sigma 2.12.
