Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Darian Mensah, the ACC's highest-rated portal class and an elite defensive baseline make Miami the league favorite, with schedule travel the main drag.
MPR #5Projected Wins #1ACC MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating24.5National #5
Projected Wins11.02National #1
Schedule Strength#47National SOS rank
Projected Offense33.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense17.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+15.7Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR23.94 → 24.52+0.58 MPR
Rank#6 → #5+1 spots
Projected Wins10.90 → 11.02Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Pittsburgh 52–23. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Miami (FL) news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
8
9
10
11
12
The gold bar is the current mode (11 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total10.5
Preseason Effective Market10.50
Current Win-Total Gap+0.52
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 24.52 = OFF 36.20 − DEF 12.95 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual 0.35 + season adjustment 0.62. Sigma 1.71.
