Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Mason Heintschel and ten returning starters create continuity; portal quality is modest and the late Florida State-Louisville-Cal sequence is demanding.
MPR #47Projected Wins #56ACC MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating6.1National #47
Projected Wins7.01National #56
Schedule Strength#56National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+0.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR6.53 → 6.05-0.48 MPR
Rank#44 → #47-3 spots
Projected Wins7.09 → 7.01Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Miami (FL) 23–52. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.76
Current Win-Total Gap-0.76
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 6.05 = OFF 31.40 − DEF 22.75 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.30 + season adjustment -3.00. Sigma 2.73.
