2026 MATRIXWEEK 9138 FBS TEAMS56 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
C
ACC · Tigers · 4-3

Clemson

Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.

Preseason roster reference: The defense remains championship-caliber, while Christopher Vizzina's limited starting experience and a difficult nonconference schedule lower the median.

MPR #32Projected Wins #58ACC MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating10.1National #32
Projected Wins6.95National #58
Schedule Strength#37National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense22.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+3.6Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17QB Christopher Vizzina is week-to-week; Tait Reynolds is expected to start against North Carolina.

Week 3 game-specific adjustment remains applied; current MPR is unchanged. No further review is scheduled.

ESPN / Reuters ↗APPLIED
Week 8 Model Update

Model Response

Moved Down

The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.

Week-over-Week MPR10.86 → 10.13-0.74 MPR
Rank#30 → #32-2 spots
Projected Wins7.67 → 6.95Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE

Lost to Virginia Tech 16–20. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.7 points; unit inputs are retained.

External Headlines

Latest Clemson news.

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Outcome Range

Season Distribution

Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.

Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote

The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.

Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.72
Current Win-Total Gap-0.77
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game

2026 Schedule Matrix

Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.

DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5LSUAway · NonconferenceFINALGame Status10–51Final · Pregame Matrix 17–28-10.6Margin45.1TotalFINALFBSOpponent
SEP 12Georgia SouthernHome · NonconferenceFINALGame Status22–7Final · Pregame Matrix 36–14+15.0Final Margin50.4TotalFINALFBSOpponent
SEP 19North CarolinaHome · ACCFINALGame Status28–20Final · Pregame Matrix 25–18+7.1Margin43.2TotalFINALFBSOpponent
SEP 25CaliforniaAway · ACCFINALGame Status24–10Final · Pregame Matrix 28–23+5.0Margin50.1TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 3Miami (FL)Home · ACCFINALGame Status13–41Final · Pregame Matrix 18–28-10.6Margin46.3TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 17Charleston SouthernHome · NonconferenceFINALGame Status37–0Final · Pregame Matrix 42–6+35.3Margin47.8TotalFINALFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
OCT 24Virginia TechHome · ACCFINALGame Status16–20Final · Pregame Matrix 27–22+4.5Margin48.8TotalFINALFBSOpponent
OCT 31Florida StateAway · ACC45%Win %23–25Current projection-1.9Margin47.4TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 7SyracuseAway · ACC70%Win %27–19Current projection+7.7Margin46.0TotalMediumFBSOpponent
NOV 14Georgia TechHome · ACC75%Win %29–19Current projection+10.0Margin48.2TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 20DukeAway · ACC55%Win %27–25Current projection+2.1Margin52.5TotalLowFBSOpponent
NOV 28South CarolinaHome · Nonconference51%Win %23–23Current projection+0.2Margin46.3TotalLowFBSOpponent
Upcoming games use current ratings. Completed games preserve their original forecast and final result.
← All Teams

Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.

Active net power 10.13 = OFF 27.30 − DEF 17.35 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual -0.45 + season adjustment 0.33. Sigma 3.13.