Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Sam Leavitt, Lane Kiffin and the SEC's top portal class create major offensive upside; first-year staff integration remains the main uncertainty.
MPR #7Projected Wins #22SEC MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating23.7National #7
Projected Wins8.75National #22
Schedule Strength#7National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.1Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense21.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+7.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR22.66 → 23.71+1.06 MPR
Rank#8 → #7+1 spots
Projected Wins8.34 → 8.75Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Auburn 38–17. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (9 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.54
Current Win-Total Gap+0.21
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 23.71 = OFF 34.45 − DEF 11.75 + ST 0.20 + legacy residual 0.50 + season adjustment 0.31. Sigma 2.61.
