Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The offense retains upside, yet a new staff, a major integration load and a difficult schedule create the conference's widest lower-tier range.
MPR #50Projected Wins #117SEC MPR #15Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating5.2National #50
Projected Wins4.12National #117
Schedule Strength#2National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense34.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-12.4Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.39 → 5.19-0.20 MPR
Rank#50 → #50+0 spots
Projected Wins4.15 → 4.12Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Arkansas news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.20
Current Win-Total Gap-0.08
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 5.19 = OFF 32.50 − DEF 29.75 + ST 0.20 + legacy residual -0.35 + season adjustment 2.59. Sigma 3.35.
