Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Quarterback and line structure support a high floor, while replacing Kyle Whittingham introduces first-year uncertainty.
MPR #21Projected Wins #9Big 12 MPR #3Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating13.4National #21
Projected Wins10.00National #9
Schedule Strength#52National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.3Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+4.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR13.38 → 13.36-0.02 MPR
Rank#23 → #21+2 spots
Projected Wins9.63 → 10.00Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Houston 21–13. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
12
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total8.5
Preseason Effective Market8.78
Current Win-Total Gap+1.22
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 13.36 = OFF 34.10 − DEF 21.04 + ST -0.11 + legacy residual 0.25 + season adjustment 0.16. Sigma 2.34.
