Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Austin Simmons offers arm talent, but zero returning defensive starters and a negative net portal signal are meaningful hidden risks.
MPR #20Projected Wins #51SEC MPR #10Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating13.8National #20
Projected Wins7.34National #51
Schedule Strength#16National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense26.1Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-1.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR13.83 → 13.84+0.01 MPR
Rank#21 → #20+1 spots
Projected Wins7.36 → 7.34Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power +0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Missouri news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.58
Current Win-Total Gap+0.76
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 13.84 = OFF 32.40 − DEF 17.30 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment -0.96. Sigma 2.40.
