Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: The defense supports a competitive floor, but the low-confidence quarterback battle and first-year staff limit the median.
MPR #16Projected Wins #40SEC MPR #9Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating15.6National #16
Projected Wins7.86National #40
Schedule Strength#6National SOS rank
Projected Offense25.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense23.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR15.78 → 15.64-0.14 MPR
Rank#16 → #16+0 spots
Projected Wins7.89 → 7.86Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
5
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.16
Current Win-Total Gap+0.70
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 15.64 = OFF 31.45 − DEF 16.55 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 0.09. Sigma 3.46.
