Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: John Mateer and an elite defense give Oklahoma a stable profile; offensive-line performance remains the swing factor.
MPR #15Projected Wins #67SEC MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating15.8National #15
Projected Wins6.61National #67
Schedule Strength#3National SOS rank
Projected Offense24.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense23.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+0.9Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR15.70 → 15.83+0.12 MPR
Rank#17 → #15+2 spots
Projected Wins6.31 → 6.61Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Mississippi State 23–15. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Oklahoma news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (7 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.77
Current Win-Total Gap-1.15
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 15.83 = OFF 31.60 − DEF 14.45 + ST 0.30 + legacy residual 0.35 + season adjustment -1.97. Sigma 1.82.
