Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Nine returning starters and positive portal movement improve the floor, but passing consistency and top-end defensive talent remain concerns.
MPR #49Projected Wins #74SEC MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating5.8National #49
Projected Wins6.17National #74
Schedule Strength#13National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.3Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR5.81 → 5.83+0.02 MPR
Rank#48 → #49-1 spots
Projected Wins6.41 → 6.17Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Oklahoma 15–23. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Mississippi State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market4.67
Current Win-Total Gap+1.50
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 5.83 = OFF 32.80 − DEF 25.80 + ST 0.50 + legacy residual 0.55 + season adjustment -2.22. Sigma 2.08.
