Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Aidan Armenta provides quarterback experience, but two new systems, low snapback and thin defensive-line depth keep the floor low.
MPR #135Projected Wins #134Sun Belt MPR #14Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-24.8National #135
Projected Wins2.09National #134
Schedule Strength#113National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense34.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-12.5Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-26.29 → -24.81+1.48 MPR
Rank#135 → #135+0 spots
Projected Wins1.07 → 2.09Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Troy 21–14. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.5 points; unit inputs are retained.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
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The gold bar is the current mode (2 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.54
Current Win-Total Gap-1.44
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -24.81 = OFF 14.45 − DEF 37.85 + ST -0.70 + legacy residual 0.00 + season adjustment -0.71. Sigma 2.92.
