Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Ryder Burton and Alex Mortensen give the offense upside, while a nearly complete defensive rebuild under Todd Grantham is likely to need time.
MPR #123Projected Wins #88American MPR #13Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-15.6National #123
Projected Wins5.74National #88
Schedule Strength#95National SOS rank
Projected Offense26.5Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense32.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-6.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-15.50 → -15.60-0.10 MPR
Rank#122 → #123-1 spots
Projected Wins5.80 → 5.74Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Week 8 bye. The joint season fit moves power -0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total3.5
Preseason Effective Market3.54
Current Win-Total Gap+2.21
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -15.60 = OFF 20.50 − DEF 37.75 + ST -0.50 + legacy residual 0.05 + season adjustment 2.10. Sigma 3.53.
