Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Blake Harrell and a favorable league schedule provide stability, while only three returning starters and an unresolved pocket-passer battle limit confidence.
MPR #84Projected Wins #76American MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-4.7National #84
Projected Wins6.15National #76
Schedule Strength#99National SOS rank
Projected Offense30.0Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense23.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+6.3Projected per game
Week 3 Final Context · Frozen Sep 17ECU injury listings remain mixed/stale across public sources; several skill-position names are still shown questionable for Sept. 19.
No team-strength change was reviewed. East Carolina +3 was excluded from the final Signal Board; no further review is scheduled.
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-4.82 → -4.72+0.10 MPR
Rank#85 → #84+1 spots
Projected Wins6.13 → 6.15Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Memphis 34–41. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.37
Current Win-Total Gap-1.22
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -4.72 = OFF 24.10 − DEF 26.40 + ST -0.20 + legacy residual -0.15 + season adjustment -2.07. Sigma 3.52.
