Matrix Power Rating1.6National #63
Projected Wins8.51National #16
Schedule Strength#86National SOS rank
Projected Offense31.3Points per game
Projected Defense25.8Points allowed
Point Differential+5.5Projected per game
Current Context
Certified UpdateWhat Changed
The Week 0 result cleared the model-update gate. The adjustment is reflected in the current MPR, national rank and projected-wins figures above.
Week 0 ResultW 27–21
MPR-0.9 → 1.6
Projected Wins7.30 → 8.51
Model update note
Outright road upset plus QB/late-game execution. Guardrail: New roster/staff—avoid >2.5 move.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The current headline projection is post-Week-0. The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (7 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total7.5
Effective Market7.46
Adjusted Edge-0.15
SignalNo Edge
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Week 0 is final. Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 5ASArkansas StateHome · Nonconference79%Win %35–23Baseline score+12.0Margin58.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 12BSBoise StateAway · Nonconference22%Win %22–34Baseline score-11.2Margin56.1TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 19UMUT MartinHome · Nonconference — FCS82%Win %35–21Baseline score+13.7Margin55.6TotalLowFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.