Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Charles Huff and a top-two transfer class create real upside, but only one returning starter and a late quarterback decision make immediate cohesion uncertain.
MPR #67Projected Wins #30American MPR #1Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating0.5National #67
Projected Wins8.20National #30
Schedule Strength#90National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.8Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense27.8Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+2.0Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR0.41 → 0.46+0.05 MPR
Rank#67 → #67+0 spots
Projected Wins8.17 → 8.20Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat East Carolina 41–34. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +0.0 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Memphis news.
Publisher headlines · auto-updating
Loading team headlines…
Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
6
7
8
9
10
The gold bar is the current mode (8 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.46
Current Win-Total Gap+0.74
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 0.46 = OFF 28.35 − DEF 30.00 + ST 0.60 + legacy residual 2.65 + season adjustment -1.14. Sigma 3.44.
