Florida Atlantic at North Texas
Matrix 30–32 · North Texas 57.4%
Current MPR leaderMemphisNational #67 · MPR 0.5
Projected wins leaderUTSA9.96 expected wins
Average MPR-7.9Current neutral-field strength
MPR Top 250Teams ranked 1–25 nationally
Title favoriteUTSA53.5% to win the title
Conference Headlines
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Current Strength
Team-by-Team Outlook
Conference rank follows current MPR. Records and title chances are with results through October 25.
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle chancesWk MPR
0.5MPR8.20Proj wins#90SOSReach31.4%Win16.4%+0.05 Week 8 MPR
0.2MPR9.96Proj wins#82SOSReach86.6%Win53.5%+1.15 Week 8 MPR
-2.0MPR7.93Proj wins#83SOSReach35.0%Win14.8%+0.03 Week 8 MPR
-2.5MPR4.79Proj wins#79SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-1.14 Week 8 MPR
-2.6MPR8.11Proj wins#114SOSReach7.9%Win3.2%+0.14 Week 8 MPR
-4.7MPR6.15Proj wins#99SOSReach3.3%Win1.1%+0.10 Week 8 MPR
-5.9MPR6.14Proj wins#89SOSReach1.7%Win0.5%-1.41 Week 8 MPR
-6.8MPR6.25Proj wins#100SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-0.12 Week 8 MPR
-7.4MPR7.73Proj wins#85SOSReach28.6%Win9.0%+1.10 Week 8 MPR
-7.9MPR6.93Proj wins#86SOSReach4.4%Win1.3%-0.76 Week 8 MPR
-9.6MPR4.23Proj wins#88SOSReach0.1%Win<0.1%+0.16 Week 8 MPR
-14.9MPR2.14Proj wins#76SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%+0.81 Week 8 MPR
-15.6MPR5.74Proj wins#95SOSReach1.0%Win0.1%-0.10 Week 8 MPR
Snapshot: Standings and season outlook with results through October 25. Ratings after Week 8; published October 26 game forecasts retained. Method & sources →
Evidence In
Week 2 Evidence Archive
The cards below preserve the original Week 2 review. Their changes are historical; the current Move column above shows the Week 8 update.
Model UpdatedNorth Texas
W 44–6 vs UNLV
MPR +2.50 · Projected Wins +1.30
Model UpdatedCharlotteL 9–41 vs Ole Miss
MPR +1.00 · Projected Wins +0.05
Model UpdatedEast CarolinaL 24–27 vs Appalachian State
MPR -0.75 · Projected Wins -1.00
Model UpdatedFlorida AtlanticW 38–30 vs Navy
MPR +0.75 · Projected Wins +0.75
Model UpdatedNavyL 30–38 vs Florida Atlantic
MPR -0.75 · Projected Wins -0.84
Model UpdatedSouth FloridaW 28–24 vs Army
MPR +0.50 · Projected Wins +0.69
Model UpdatedTempleL 9–27 vs Penn State
MPR +0.50 · Projected Wins +0.06
Model UpdatedArmyL 24–28 vs South Florida
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins -0.56
No saved forecastMemphisL 20–38 vs Boise State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastRiceL 0–52 vs Notre Dame
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastTulaneW 28–24 vs South Alabama
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Model UpdatedTulsaW 23–17 vs Sam Houston
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.04
No saved forecastUABW 26–20 vs UL Monroe
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastUTSAW 31–26 vs Texas State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Week 9 conference games
Published October 26 forecasts with game results as they arrive.
Tulane at Charlotte
Matrix 37–15 · Tulane 93.0%
Notre Dame at Navy
Matrix 42–13 · Notre Dame 97.3%
UAB at South Florida
Matrix 21–37 · South Florida 85.1%
Temple at East Carolina
Matrix 24–31 · East Carolina 68.8%
Army at Memphis
Matrix 27–29 · Memphis 56.2%
Week 8 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
East Carolina at Memphis
Final 34–41 · Original Matrix 25–30
Frozen forecast and grades →Army at Tulsa
Final 38–35 · Original Matrix 28–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Rice at Florida Atlantic
Final 49–51 · Original Matrix 22–34
Frozen forecast and grades →North Texas at Navy
Final 49–39 · Original Matrix 24–34
Frozen forecast and grades →UTSA at Tulane
Final 42–19 · Original Matrix 29–28
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 7 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
East Carolina at UAB
Final 17–30 · Original Matrix 33–22
Frozen forecast and grades →Memphis at Tulane
Final 17–31 · Original Matrix 29–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Florida Atlantic at Army
Final 24–56 · Original Matrix 27–31
Frozen forecast and grades →Charlotte at Temple
Final 38–31 · Original Matrix 15–42
Frozen forecast and grades →Tulsa at Rice
Final 38–17 · Original Matrix 28–24
Frozen forecast and grades →Kent State at South Florida
Final 2–29 · Original Matrix 16–38
Frozen forecast and grades →Navy at UTSA
Final 34–38 · Original Matrix 28–31
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 6 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
South Florida at UTSA
Final 24–31 · Original Matrix 28–32
Frozen forecast and grades →Tulane at Army
Final 17–20 · Original Matrix 23–28
Frozen forecast and grades →Charlotte at North Texas
Final 10–50 · Original Matrix 16–41
Frozen forecast and grades →Tulsa at Navy
Final 26–34 · Original Matrix 23–32
Frozen forecast and grades →UConn at Temple
Final 34–20 · Original Matrix 25–31
Frozen forecast and grades →Rice at East Carolina
Final 12–28 · Original Matrix 18–31
Frozen forecast and grades →UAB at Memphis
Final 13–38 · Original Matrix 21–38
Frozen forecast and grades →