Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Owen McCown provides the conference's most established passing baseline, but only two defensive starters return and the road schedule is demanding.
MPR #68Projected Wins #11American MPR #2Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating0.2National #68
Projected Wins9.96National #11
Schedule Strength#82National SOS rank
Projected Offense35.7Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.9Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential+9.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-0.98 → 0.17+1.15 MPR
Rank#75 → #68+7 spots
Projected Wins9.38 → 9.96Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Tulane 42–19. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
7
8
9
10
11
The gold bar is the current mode (10 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.62
Current Win-Total Gap+2.35
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power 0.17 = OFF 30.25 − DEF 31.85 + ST 0.20 + legacy residual 0.10 + season adjustment 1.47. Sigma 2.28.
