Matrix Power Rating-4.9National #86
Projected Wins5.46National #96
Schedule Strength#73National SOS rank
Projected Offense29.2Points per game
Projected Defense32.4Points allowed
Point Differential-3.2Projected per game
Current Context
Reviewed StateWhat Changed
No Week 0 game has been played for this team. Current MPR and projected wins remain the approved preseason team state entering Week 1.
Week 0 ResultNo game
MPR-4.9 → -4.9
Projected Wins5.46 → 5.46
Model update note
No new game evidence has entered the team update gate yet.
External Headlines
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
The detailed record distribution remains the certified preseason baseline until the full game-by-game probability cascade is refreshed.
Preseason Outcome ShapeBaseline distribution
The gold bar is the baseline mode (5 wins). This component is explicitly separated from the current headline state and will switch to the refreshed distribution when the full probability cascade is updated.
Season Market Context · 2026-08-08
Preseason Comparison LayerMarket context stays separate from MPR and projected wins. This snapshot is retained as comparison context and does not define team strength.
Posted Total6.5
Effective Market6.17
Adjusted Edge-1.25
SignalStrong
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Remaining game rows preserve the approved preseason game-level projection baseline until the next full schedule-probability cascade.
DateOpponentWin %Score / ResultMarginTotalConfidenceType
SEP 19NTNorth TexasHome · Nonconference74%Win %38–29Baseline score+10.3Margin66.7TotalMediumFBSOpponent
SEP 26IWIncarnate WordHome · Nonconference — FCS62%Win %34–29Baseline score+4.7Margin62.4TotalMediumFCS/Other ProxyOpponent
NOV 28CSColorado StateAway · Projected Flex — Nonconference54%Win %30–29Baseline score+1.5Margin58.6TotalLowFBSOpponent
Data-vintage safeguard: current MPR and projected wins above are the approved Week 1 team-state values. Detailed distribution and remaining schedule probabilities are explicitly labeled as baseline where the full probability cascade has not yet been refreshed.