Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Brad Jackson gives Texas State the conference's most dynamic quarterback and a high offensive ceiling; the defense remains the clear limiting unit.
MPR #83Projected Wins #73Pac-12 MPR #4Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-4.1National #83
Projected Wins6.24National #73
Schedule Strength#71National SOS rank
Projected Offense28.6Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense31.2Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-3.87 → -4.10-0.22 MPR
Rank#82 → #83-1 spots
Projected Wins5.91 → 6.24Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Utah State 20–17. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.2 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Texas State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
4
5
6
7
8
9
The gold bar is the current mode (6 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.17
Current Win-Total Gap-0.52
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -4.10 = OFF 32.50 − DEF 37.65 + ST 0.10 + legacy residual 0.15 + season adjustment 0.80. Sigma 2.37.
