Colorado State at Utah State
Matrix 23–28 · Utah State 63.6%
Current MPR leaderBoise StateNational #34 · MPR 9.7
Projected wins leaderBoise State10.26 expected wins
Average MPR-3.2Current neutral-field strength
MPR Top 250Teams ranked 1–25 nationally
Title favoriteBoise State79.3% to win the title
Conference Headlines
Latest Pac-12 news and movement.
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Current Strength
Team-by-Team Outlook
Conference rank follows current MPR. Records and title chances are with results through October 25.
RankTeamMPRProj WinsSOSTitle chancesWk MPR
9.7MPR10.26Proj wins#73SOSReach96.9%Win79.3%+0.32 Week 8 MPR
-1.1MPR7.07Proj wins#81SOSReach14.4%Win2.7%-0.12 Week 8 MPR
-1.4MPR7.55Proj wins#74SOSReach61.0%Win13.5%-0.51 Week 8 MPR
-4.1MPR6.24Proj wins#71SOSReach17.0%Win2.9%-0.22 Week 8 MPR
-5.0MPR4.70Proj wins#75SOSReach6.7%Win1.2%-0.63 Week 8 MPR
-6.5MPR3.93Proj wins#70SOSReach3.6%Win0.4%+0.07 Week 8 MPR
-7.8MPR2.70Proj wins#69SOSReach<0.1%Win<0.1%-0.41 Week 8 MPR
-9.1MPR4.56Proj wins#72SOSReach0.4%Win<0.1%+1.07 Week 8 MPR
Snapshot: Standings and season outlook with results through October 25. Ratings after Week 8; published October 26 game forecasts retained. Method & sources →
Evidence In
Week 2 Evidence Archive
The cards below preserve the original Week 2 review. Their changes are historical; the current Move column above shows the Week 8 update.
No Week 0 games: no teams in this group entered the Week 0 model-review gate. This historical team state reflects the Week 2.1 reviewed ratings.
Model UpdatedFresno State
W 49–3 vs Sacramento State
MPR +0.75 · Projected Wins +0.24
Model UpdatedOregon StateL 24–35 vs Texas Tech
MPR +0.50 · Projected Wins +0.05
Model UpdatedUtah StateL 14–16 vs Washington
MPR +0.50 · Projected Wins +0.02
No saved forecastBoise StateW 38–20 vs Memphis
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastColorado StateW 58–24 vs Southern Utah
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastSan Diego StateL 10–28 vs UCLA
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastTexas StateL 26–31 vs UTSA
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
No saved forecastWashington StateL 7–34 vs Kansas State
MPR +0.00 · Projected Wins +0.00
Week 9 conference games
Published October 26 forecasts with game results as they arrive.
Washington State at San Diego State
Matrix 20–25 · San Diego State 63.2%
Texas State at Boise State
Matrix 23–40 · Boise State 88.3%
Oregon State at Fresno State
Matrix 21–24 · Fresno State 56.7%
Week 8 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Boise State at Washington State
Final 31–10 · Original Matrix 31–17
Frozen forecast and grades →San Diego State at Colorado State
Final 49–56 · Original Matrix 25–22
Frozen forecast and grades →Utah State at Texas State
Final 17–20 · Original Matrix 29–35
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 7 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Colorado State at Texas State
Final 27–66 · Original Matrix 27–33
Frozen forecast and grades →Washington State at Oregon State
Final 30–48 · Original Matrix 19–27
Frozen forecast and grades →Fresno State at San Diego State
Final 23–26 · Original Matrix 23–21
Frozen forecast and grades →Week 6 Results Archive
Finals and original projections
Washington State at Utah State
Final 16–17 · Original Matrix 23–26
Frozen forecast and grades →San Diego State at Oregon State
Final 14–66 · Original Matrix 22–26
Frozen forecast and grades →Boise State at Fresno State
Final 38–31 · Original Matrix 27–20
Frozen forecast and grades →