2026 MATRIXWEEK 7138 FBS TEAMS62 GAMESCOLLEGE FOOTBALL DECODEDMODEL + MARKET + CONTEXT
GameDay Matrix
Weekly Matrix · Week 7

The Week Runs Through
The Matrix.

Scores, winners, spreads and totals for this week’s games. Past weeks are available below.

Week 7 forecasts
62 published forecasts33 spread picks27 total picks6 Upset Watch games
WEEK 7 BOARD · CURRENT GAME STATUS UPDATING
Published October 13: Scores, winners, spreads and totals use the Week 7 model. Player availability and weather factors appear with each matchup; market quotes are dated October 13.

Week 7 Projection Board

Published Week 7 forecasts · score, winner, spread, total and matchup context.

59 games
TUE OCT 13 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
DelawareMPR #118 · 2-4
Matrix Projection33–24Delaware 73%
Middle TennesseeMPR #132 · 3-3
FavoriteDelaware
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total56.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Delaware -9.1Market Delaware -1.5Gap 7.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market O/U 48.5Gap 8.1 pts
WinnerPrediction Delaware · 73%
ScorePrediction 33–24
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Quarterback context: EJ Archield Jr. made his first start after Nick Minnicucci’s injury. Starter role and availability add uncertainty. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13

TUE OCT 13 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Florida InternationalMPR #110 · 3-3
Matrix Projection25–32Jacksonville State 67%
Jacksonville StateMPR #104 · 5-2
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.5
Model Total56.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -6.5Market Jacksonville State -3.0Gap 3.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.9Market O/U 43.5Gap 13.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Jacksonville State · 67%
ScorePrediction 25–32
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
AmFirst Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
WED OCT 14 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Kennesaw StateMPR #106 · 1-5
Matrix Projection29–23Kennesaw State 66%
Missouri StateMPR #125 · 2-4
FavoriteKennesaw State
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.1
Model Total51.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kennesaw State -6.1Market Kennesaw State -3.0Gap 3.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.7Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Kennesaw State · 66%
ScorePrediction 29–23
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
WED OCT 14 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Western KentuckyMPR #94 · 3-4
Matrix Projection36–21Western Kentucky 83%
Sam HoustonMPR #133 · 1-5
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.4
Model Total56.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -14.4Market Western Kentucky -1.5Gap 12.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.8Market O/U 53.5Gap 3.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Western Kentucky · 83%
ScorePrediction 36–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Quarterback context: Week 6 QB usage changed to Brock Glenn. Starter role can affect the game outlook. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13

THU OCT 15 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
East CarolinaMPR #81 · 3-2
Matrix Projection33–22East Carolina 76%
UABMPR #124 · 3-3
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.8
Model Total54.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: East Carolina -10.8Market East Carolina -4.5Gap 6.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.7Market O/U 47.5Gap 7.2 pts
WinnerPrediction East Carolina · 76%
ScorePrediction 33–22
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Protective Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
THU OCT 15 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Georgia SouthernMPR #93 · 2-4
Matrix Projection24–26Old Dominion 55%
Old DominionMPR #98 · 2-4
FavoriteOld Dominion
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.8
Model Total49.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Old Dominion -1.8Market Georgia Southern -3.5Gap 5.3 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.7Market O/U 47.5Gap 2.2 pts
WinnerPrediction Old Dominion · 55%
ScorePrediction 24–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
S.B. Ballard Stadium
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab
THU OCT 15 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Colorado StateMPR #103 · 2-3
Matrix Projection27–33Texas State 67%
Texas StateMPR #86 · 2-3
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.6
Model Total59.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas State -6.6Market Texas State -14.0Gap 7.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 59.9Market O/U 70.5Gap 10.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Texas State · 67%
ScorePrediction 27–33
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
UFCU Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Colorado State: Hauss Hejny was listed Questionable in the saved availability record. The replacement quarterback role can affect the game outlook. Recorded game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Context recorded October 13

FRI OCT 16 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
MemphisMPR #64 · 5-1
Matrix Projection29–26Memphis 57%
TulaneMPR #90 · 2-3
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.6
Model Total54.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Memphis -2.6Market Memphis -7.0Gap 4.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.8Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Memphis · 57%
ScorePrediction 29–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Yulman Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Wind NWS game-window forecast: 72–82°F; wind 15–20 mph, gusts up to 36 mph; precipitation chance up to 24%. An NWS Wind Advisory covers the forecast area during the game window. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

FRI OCT 16 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Appalachian StateMPR #115 · 3-2
Matrix Projection27–28Coastal Carolina 52%
Coastal CarolinaMPR #120 · 2-4
FavoriteCoastal Carolina
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total55.3
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Coastal Carolina -0.8Market Appalachian State -1.5Gap 2.3 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.3Market O/U 49.5Gap 5.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Coastal Carolina · 52%
ScorePrediction 27–28
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Brooks Stadium (SC)
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Quarterback availability App State lists quarterback Malachi Singleton as a game-time decision for Friday’s Coastal Carolina game in its gameday report. NWS game-window forecast: 73–76°F; wind 7–9 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

FRI OCT 16 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
WashingtonMPR #28 · 3-3
Matrix Projection30–21Washington 73%
PurdueMPR #70 · 3-3
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.3
Model Total50.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Washington -9.3Market Purdue -3.5Gap 12.8 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.9Market O/U 52.5Gap 1.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Washington · 73%
ScorePrediction 30–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Ross-Ade Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability · Wind · Showers Washington lists Demond Williams Jr. as a game-time decision and Elijah Brown as available in its 6 PM ET gameday report. NWS game-window forecast: 47–50°F; wind 14–17 mph, gusts up to 33 mph; precipitation chance up to 49%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Ball StateMPR #136 · 1-5
Matrix Projection14–31Bowling Green 86%
Bowling GreenMPR #116 · 2-4
FavoriteBowling Green
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.3
Model Total45.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Bowling Green -16.3Market Bowling Green -6.5Gap 9.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.2Market O/U 47.5Gap 2.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Bowling Green · 86%
ScorePrediction 14–31
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Charleston SouthernFCS / Other
Matrix Projection6–42Clemson 99%
ClemsonMPR #30 · 3-2
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin35.3
Model Total47.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Clemson -35.3Market No recorded pregame line
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.8Market No recorded pregame total
WinnerPrediction Clemson · 99%
ScorePrediction 6–42
Pregame market · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Week 7
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
CincinnatiMPR #56 · 4-1
Matrix Projection28–26Cincinnati 57%
West VirginiaMPR #75 · 3-3
FavoriteCincinnati
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total53.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Cincinnati -2.5Market West Virginia -1.5Gap 4.0 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.7Market O/U 63.5Gap 9.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Cincinnati · 57%
ScorePrediction 28–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Milan Puskar Stadium
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
FloridaMPR #19 · 4-2
Matrix Projection19–30Texas 77%
TexasMPR #7 · 4-1
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total49.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas -11.2Market Texas -10.5Gap 0.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.2Market O/U 52.5Gap 3.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Texas · 77%
ScorePrediction 19–30
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Florida lists quarterback Aaron Philo as questionable for Texas in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 58–66°F; wind 10 mph, gusts up to 22 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Florida AtlanticMPR #87 · 4-1
Matrix Projection27–31Army 62%
ArmyMPR #82 · 3-2
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.7
Model Total57.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Army -4.7Market Army -2.5Gap 2.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.8Market O/U 55.5Gap 2.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Army · 62%
ScorePrediction 27–31
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Michie Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Georgia StateMPR #126 · 4-1
Matrix Projection16–40James Madison 94%
James MadisonMPR #65 · 6-0
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin23.3
Model Total56.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: James Madison -23.3Market James Madison -12.5Gap 10.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.0Market O/U 58.5Gap 2.5 pts
WinnerPrediction James Madison · 94%
ScorePrediction 16–40
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Bridgeforth Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
KansasMPR #58 · 2-3
Matrix Projection24–32Kansas State 70%
Kansas StateMPR #39 · 3-2
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.8
Model Total56.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kansas State -7.8Market Kansas State -4.5Gap 3.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.0Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Kansas State · 70%
ScorePrediction 24–32
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Mississippi StateMPR #40 · 4-1
Matrix Projection18–35LSU 87%
LSUMPR #9 · 4-2
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.8
Model Total52.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: LSU -16.8Market LSU -14.0Gap 2.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 58.5Gap 6.0 pts
WinnerPrediction LSU · 87%
ScorePrediction 18–35
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Tiger Stadium (LA)
Week 7Open Game Lab

Player availability · Wind Mississippi State lists quarterback Kamario Taylor and running back Fluff Bothwell as questionable in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 62–70°F; wind 15 mph, gusts up to 23 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
NorthwesternMPR #37 · 4-1
Matrix Projection27–21Northwestern 65%
Michigan StateMPR #69 · 2-4
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.6
Model Total48.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Northwestern -5.6Market Northwestern -7.5Gap 1.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.0Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Northwestern · 65%
ScorePrediction 27–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Spartan Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Ohio StateMPR #1 · 5-1
Matrix Projection28–22Ohio State 63%
IndianaMPR #6 · 6-0
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.1
Model Total50.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio State -5.1Market Ohio State -3.5Gap 1.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Ohio State · 63%
ScorePrediction 28–22
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
PittsburghMPR #41 · 5-1
Matrix Projection30–24Pittsburgh 66%
Boston CollegeMPR #73 · 2-3
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.2
Model Total53.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -6.2Market Pittsburgh -6.5Gap 0.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.7Market O/U 42.5Gap 11.2 pts
WinnerPrediction Pittsburgh · 66%
ScorePrediction 30–24
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability · Wind Pitt lists quarterback Mason Heintschel as out in the latest ACC report. The team announced he will miss the remainder of the season. NWS game-window forecast: 48–49°F; wind 15 mph, gusts up to 29 mph; precipitation chance up to 2%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 12:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
VirginiaMPR #49 · 4-2
Matrix Projection20–30SMU 73%
SMUMPR #34 · 4-1
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total50.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: SMU -9.1Market SMU -9.5Gap 0.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.5 pts
WinnerPrediction SMU · 73%
ScorePrediction 20–30
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 12:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
RutgersMPR #67 · 1-4
Matrix Projection25–29Maryland 61%
MarylandMPR #61 · 2-4
FavoriteMaryland
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.1
Model Total54.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Maryland -4.1Market Maryland -4.5Gap 0.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.0Market O/U 57.5Gap 3.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Maryland · 61%
ScorePrediction 25–29
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
SECU Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
CharlotteMPR #138 · 0-6
Matrix Projection15–42Temple 97%
TempleMPR #102 · 2-4
FavoriteTemple
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin27.6
Model Total56.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Temple -27.6Market Temple -21.5Gap 6.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.8Market O/U 47.5Gap 9.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Temple · 97%
ScorePrediction 15–42
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Lincoln Financial Field
Week 7Open Game Lab

Wind NWS game-window forecast: 52–53°F; wind 15–20 mph, gusts up to 33 mph; precipitation chance up to 11%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
MassachusettsMPR #137 · 4-2
Matrix Projection14–32Buffalo 89%
BuffaloMPR #113 · 3-3
FavoriteBuffalo
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.1
Model Total46.3
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Buffalo -18.1Market Buffalo -6.5Gap 11.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.3Market O/U 41.5Gap 4.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Buffalo · 89%
ScorePrediction 14–32
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Broadview Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 1:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
The CitadelFCS / Other
Matrix Projection6–47Texas A&M 100%
Texas A&MMPR #11 · 3-3
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin40.5
Model Total53.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas A&M -40.5Market No recorded pregame line
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.4Market No recorded pregame total
WinnerPrediction Texas A&M · 100%
ScorePrediction 6–47
Pregame market · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Kyle Field
Week 7
SAT OCT 17 · 1:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Western MichiganMPR #83 · 4-2
Matrix Projection25–20Western Michigan 64%
Central MichiganMPR #117 · 3-3
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total45.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Michigan -5.3Market Western Michigan -6.5Gap 1.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.1Market O/U 43.5Gap 1.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Western Michigan · 64%
ScorePrediction 25–20
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
AkronMPR #128 · 1-5
Matrix Projection13–30Miami (OH) 87%
Miami (OH)MPR #89 · 3-3
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin17.0
Model Total43.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -17.0Market Miami (OH) -9.5Gap 7.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 43.6Market O/U 46.5Gap 2.9 pts
WinnerPrediction Miami (OH) · 87%
ScorePrediction 13–30
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Yager Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
AlabamaMPR #8 · 5-1
Matrix Projection29–24Alabama 61%
TennesseeMPR #14 · 5-1
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.3
Model Total53.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Alabama -4.3Market Alabama -8.5Gap 4.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.0Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Alabama · 61%
ScorePrediction 29–24
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Neyland Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability · Wind Tennessee lists quarterback Faizon Brandon as questionable in the latest SEC report. NWS game-window forecast: 54–58°F; wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 22 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Arizona StateMPR #52 · 3-2
Matrix Projection16–34Texas Tech 88%
Texas TechMPR #10 · 5-0
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin18.0
Model Total50.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas Tech -18.0Market Texas Tech -14.5Gap 3.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Texas Tech · 88%
ScorePrediction 16–34
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Galaxy Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
AuburnMPR #29 · 3-2
Matrix Projection15–34Georgia 90%
GeorgiaMPR #2 · 6-0
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.2
Model Total49.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia -19.2Market Georgia -20.5Gap 1.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.8Market O/U 49.5Gap 0.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Georgia · 90%
ScorePrediction 15–34
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Sanford Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Georgia TechMPR #54 · 2-3
Matrix Projection23–31Virginia Tech 70%
Virginia TechMPR #35 · 4-2
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total53.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -7.9Market Virginia Tech -10.0Gap 2.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.2Market O/U 56.5Gap 3.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Virginia Tech · 70%
ScorePrediction 23–31
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Lane Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
MissouriMPR #17 · 5-1
Matrix Projection25–28Ole Miss 58%
Ole MissMPR #13 · 4-1
FavoriteOle Miss
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.2
Model Total53.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ole Miss -3.2Market Ole Miss -6.0Gap 2.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.6Market O/U 59.5Gap 5.9 pts
WinnerPrediction Ole Miss · 58%
ScorePrediction 25–28
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
North CarolinaMPR #47 · 3-2
Matrix Projection24–29Duke 62%
DukeMPR #45 · 4-1
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total53.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Duke -4.6Market Duke -3.0Gap 1.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.0Market O/U 47.5Gap 5.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Duke · 62%
ScorePrediction 24–29
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Wallace Wade Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Northern IllinoisMPR #127 · 0-5
Matrix Projection15–26Wyoming 77%
WyomingMPR #111 · 3-3
FavoriteWyoming
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.0
Model Total42.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Wyoming -11.0Market Wyoming -7.5Gap 3.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 42.0Market O/U 40.5Gap 1.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Wyoming · 77%
ScorePrediction 15–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
War Memorial Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Penn StateMPR #21 · 3-3
Matrix Projection23–26Michigan 58%
MichiganMPR #20 · 3-2
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin2.9
Model Total48.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Michigan -2.9Market Michigan -6.5Gap 3.6 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.5Market O/U 42.5Gap 6.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Michigan · 58%
ScorePrediction 23–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Michigan Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
ToledoMPR #108 · 4-2
Matrix Projection25–22Toledo 58%
Eastern MichiganMPR #123 · 4-3
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.1
Model Total47.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Toledo -3.1Market Toledo -6.5Gap 3.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.1Market O/U 53.5Gap 6.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Toledo · 58%
ScorePrediction 25–22
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Rynearson Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 3:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
UNLVMPR #57 · 4-2
Matrix Projection31–26UNLV 62%
Air ForceMPR #78 · 4-1
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.5
Model Total57.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UNLV -4.5Market UNLV -1.5Gap 3.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 8.7 pts
WinnerPrediction UNLV · 62%
ScorePrediction 31–26
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Falcon Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 4:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
TulsaMPR #99 · 3-3
Matrix Projection28–24Tulsa 59%
RiceMPR #121 · 1-5
FavoriteTulsa
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.5
Model Total51.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Tulsa -3.5Market Tulsa -4.0Gap 0.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.9Market O/U 46.5Gap 5.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Tulsa · 59%
ScorePrediction 28–24
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
First Community Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 5:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
TroyMPR #88 · 3-2
Matrix Projection28–28Louisiana 50%
LouisianaMPR #97 · 4-2
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.0
Model Total56.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisiana -0.0Market Louisiana -4.5Gap 4.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.8Market O/U 49.5Gap 7.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Louisiana · 50%
ScorePrediction 28–28
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 6:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Washington StateMPR #92 · 1-5
Matrix Projection19–27Oregon State 69%
Oregon StateMPR #76 · 4-2
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total46.0
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon State -7.6Market Oregon State -17.5Gap 9.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.0Market O/U 52.5Gap 6.5 pts
WinnerPrediction Oregon State · 69%
ScorePrediction 19–27
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Reser Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
ArkansasMPR #53 · 2-4
Matrix Projection27–33Vanderbilt 65%
VanderbiltMPR #44 · 3-3
FavoriteVanderbilt
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.7
Model Total60.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Vanderbilt -5.7Market Vanderbilt -6.0Gap 0.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 60.5Market O/U 50.5Gap 10.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Vanderbilt · 65%
ScorePrediction 27–33
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
FirstBank Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Arkansas StateMPR #105 · 2-4
Matrix Projection34–22Arkansas State 79%
Southern MissMPR #131 · 1-4
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin11.9
Model Total56.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arkansas State -11.9Market Arkansas State -7.0Gap 4.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.5Market O/U 62.5Gap 6.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Arkansas State · 79%
ScorePrediction 34–22
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability · Wind Southern Miss lists quarterback Ethan Hampton as out in its latest Sun Belt report. Landry Lyddy leads the team in passing yards through five games. NWS game-window forecast: 59–69°F; wind 10–15 mph, gusts up to 26 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Florida StateMPR #36 · 3-3
Matrix Projection15–35Miami (FL) 91%
Miami (FL)MPR #5 · 5-0
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.8
Model Total49.9
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -19.8Market Miami (FL) -21.0Gap 1.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 5.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Miami (FL) · 91%
ScorePrediction 15–35
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Hard Rock Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Thunderstorms NWS game-window forecast: 77–79°F; wind 6–8 mph; precipitation chance up to 74%. Thunderstorms appear in the NWS hourly forecast; timing and local conditions can change. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Kent StateMPR #129 · 2-4
Matrix Projection16–38South Florida 92%
South FloridaMPR #80 · 4-2
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.3
Model Total53.8
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: South Florida -21.3Market South Florida -20.5Gap 0.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.8Market O/U 45.5Gap 8.3 pts
WinnerPrediction South Florida · 92%
ScorePrediction 16–38
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Raymond James Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
NevadaMPR #109 · 2-3
Matrix Projection18–31North Dakota State 81%
North Dakota StateMPR #63 · 5-1
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total48.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: North Dakota State -13.2Market North Dakota State -15.5Gap 2.3 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.6Market O/U 42.5Gap 6.1 pts
WinnerPrediction North Dakota State · 81%
ScorePrediction 18–31
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Fargodome
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
TCUMPR #38 · 2-3
Matrix Projection29–28TCU 53%
BaylorMPR #48 · 4-1
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin0.9
Model Total57.3
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: TCU -0.9Market Baylor -6.0Gap 6.9 pts · favorite flip
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.3Market O/U 48.5Gap 8.8 pts
WinnerPrediction TCU · 53%
ScorePrediction 29–28
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
McLane Stadium
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
ElonFCS / Other
Matrix Projection21–29Stanford 71%
StanfordMPR #85 · 2-4
FavoriteStanford
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.2
Model Total49.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Stanford -8.2Market No recorded pregame line
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.4Market No recorded pregame total
WinnerPrediction Stanford · 71%
ScorePrediction 21–29
Pregame market · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Stanford Stadium
Week 7
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
KentuckyMPR #46 · 5-1
Matrix Projection17–29Oklahoma 79%
OklahomaMPR #12 · 3-2
FavoriteOklahoma
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.2
Model Total46.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oklahoma -12.2Market Oklahoma -7.0Gap 5.2 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.2Market O/U 43.5Gap 2.7 pts
WinnerPrediction Oklahoma · 79%
ScorePrediction 17–29
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
LouisvilleMPR #25 · 3-3
Matrix Projection30–20Louisville 76%
SyracuseMPR #74 · 2-3
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total49.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisville -10.6Market Louisville -14.5Gap 3.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.7Market O/U 55.5Gap 5.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Louisville · 76%
ScorePrediction 30–20
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
JMA Wireless Dome
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Syracuse lists Steve Angeli and Malachi Nelson as questionable and Amari Odom as out in the latest ACC report. All three have started games this season. Indoor game at JMA Wireless Dome. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:40 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Notre DameMPR #3 · 6-0
Matrix Projection31–22Notre Dame 72%
BYUMPR #16 · 5-0
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total53.6
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Notre Dame -8.9Market Notre Dame -10.0Gap 1.1 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.6Market O/U 46.5Gap 7.1 pts
WinnerPrediction Notre Dame · 72%
ScorePrediction 31–22
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Oklahoma StateMPR #33 · 4-1
Matrix Projection25–29Houston 62%
HoustonMPR #26 · 5-1
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.5
Model Total54.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Houston -4.5Market Houston -4.5Gap 0.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 62.5Gap 8.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Houston · 62%
ScorePrediction 25–29
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
TDECU Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 7:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
WisconsinMPR #50 · 4-1
Matrix Projection20–27UCLA 68%
UCLAMPR #31 · 5-0
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.0
Model Total46.4
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UCLA -7.0Market UCLA -2.5Gap 4.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.4Market O/U 43.5Gap 2.9 pts
WinnerPrediction UCLA · 68%
ScorePrediction 20–27
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Rose Bowl
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability · Heat UCLA lists Nico Iamaleava as out in the latest Big Ten report. Ty Dieffenbach replaced him after halftime against Oregon. NWS game-window forecast: 78–92°F; wind 5 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
Louisiana TechMPR #96 · 3-2
Matrix Projection34–19Louisiana Tech 84%
UL MonroeMPR #134 · 0-5
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin15.0
Model Total52.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -15.0Market Louisiana Tech -15.5Gap 0.5 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.7Market O/U 57.5Gap 4.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Louisiana Tech · 84%
ScorePrediction 34–19
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Malone Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 8:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
NavyMPR #77 · 2-3
Matrix Projection28–31UTSA 57%
UTSAMPR #72 · 5-1
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total59.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UTSA -2.7Market UTSA -6.5Gap 3.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 59.5Market O/U 55.5Gap 4.0 pts
WinnerPrediction UTSA · 57%
ScorePrediction 28–31
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Alamodome
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 9:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
San Jose StateMPR #119 · 3-3
Matrix Projection29–21San Jose State 70%
UTEPMPR #130 · 1-5
FavoriteSan Jose State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total50.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: San Jose State -7.9Market San Jose State -7.5Gap 0.4 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.5Market O/U 46.5Gap 4.0 pts
WinnerPrediction San Jose State · 70%
ScorePrediction 29–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Sun Bowl
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 10:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
OhioMPR #114 · 4-2
Matrix Projection28–17Ohio 78%
Sacramento StateMPR #135 · 1-5
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.5
Model Total45.2
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio -11.5Market Ohio -15.5Gap 4.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 3.3 pts
WinnerPrediction Ohio · 78%
ScorePrediction 28–17
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Hornet Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 10:15 PM EDTWEEK 7
UtahMPR #18 · 5-0
Matrix Projection33–20Utah 80%
ColoradoMPR #71 · 2-3
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.6
Model Total53.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah -12.6Market Utah -15.5Gap 2.9 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.1Market O/U 49.5Gap 3.6 pts
WinnerPrediction Utah · 80%
ScorePrediction 33–20
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Folsom Field
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Fresno StateMPR #68 · 4-2
Matrix Projection23–21Fresno State 57%
San Diego StateMPR #84 · 2-4
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total44.1
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Fresno State -2.7Market Fresno State -7.5Gap 4.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.1Market O/U 46.5Gap 2.4 pts
WinnerPrediction Fresno State · 57%
ScorePrediction 23–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Snapdragon Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
New MexicoMPR #55 · 4-1
Matrix Projection33–21New Mexico 78%
HawaiiMPR #95 · 1-5
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.7
Model Total53.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: New Mexico -11.7Market New Mexico -14.5Gap 2.8 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.7Market O/U 45.5Gap 8.2 pts
WinnerPrediction New Mexico · 78%
ScorePrediction 33–21
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Week 7Open Game Lab

Wind NWS game-window forecast: 77–84°F; wind 20–21 mph, gusts up to 29 mph; precipitation chance up to 23%. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 10:30 PM EDTWEEK 7
Wake ForestMPR #42 · 5-1
Matrix Projection26–25Wake Forest 54%
CaliforniaMPR #59 · 3-3
FavoriteWake Forest
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.5
Model Total50.7
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Wake Forest -1.5Market Wake Forest -9.5Gap 8.0 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.7Market O/U 53.5Gap 2.8 pts
WinnerPrediction Wake Forest · 54%
ScorePrediction 26–25
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
Week 7CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Quarterback availability Cal lists quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele as questionable in the latest ACC report. NWS game-window forecast: 61–69°F; wind 0–2 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

SAT OCT 17 · 11:00 PM EDTWEEK 7
NebraskaMPR #23 · 5-1
Matrix Projection18–34Oregon 86%
OregonMPR #4 · 3-2
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.2
Model Total52.5
PREGAME
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon -16.2Market Oregon -7.5Gap 8.7 pts
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.0 pts
WinnerPrediction Oregon · 86%
ScorePrediction 18–34
DraftKings · recorded Oct 13 · lines can move
Autzen Stadium
Week 7Open Game Lab

Quarterback availability Oregon lists Dante Moore as out in the latest Big Ten report. Oregon used Dylan Raiola and Brock Thomas against UCLA. NWS game-window forecast: 52–57°F; wind 6–8 mph. Player source ↗ Weather ↗Updated Oct 16, 6:37 PM ET

TUE OCT 6 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Southern MissMPR #132 · 1-3
FINAL34–55Pregame Matrix 18–37
TroyMPR #88 · 2-2
FavoriteTroy
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.9
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Troy -19.9 Market Troy -10.5 Gap 9.4 ptsResult WIN · Troy -10.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 54.9 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 5.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction Troy · 91%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 18–37Final 34–55 · 34.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

WED OCT 7 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Jacksonville StateMPR #104 · 3-2
FINAL27–26Pregame Matrix 27–27
Kennesaw StateMPR #108 · 1-3
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total54.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -0.2 Market Jacksonville State -3.0 Gap 2.8 ptsResult WIN · Kennesaw State +3.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 54.7 Market O/U 50.5 Gap 4.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
Winner Prediction Jacksonville State · 51%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 27–27Final 27–26 · 1.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
Closed without lockWeek 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

WED OCT 7 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
New Mexico StateMPR #120 · 2-3
FINAL3–22Pregame Matrix 24–29
Florida InternationalMPR #113 · 2-2
FavoriteFlorida International
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total53.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Florida International -4.6 Market Florida International -5.5 Gap 0.9 ptsResult LOSS · New Mexico State +5.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 53.0 Market O/U 46.5 Gap 6.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner Prediction Florida International · 62%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 24–29Final 3–22 · 28.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Pitbull Stadium
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

THU OCT 8 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Missouri StateMPR #125 · 1-3
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 22–33
Western KentuckyMPR #98 · 1-4
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.6
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -11.6 Market Western Kentucky -2.5 Gap 9.1 ptsResult WIN · Western Kentucky -2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.3 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner Prediction Western Kentucky · 78%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 22–33Final 13–34 · 8.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

THU OCT 8 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Sam HoustonMPR #130 · 1-3
FINAL3–35Pregame Matrix 17–40
LibertyMPR #79 · 4-1
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob94%
Model Margin23.2
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Liberty -23.2 Market Liberty -13.5 Gap 9.7 ptsResult WIN · Liberty -13.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 56.7 Market O/U 52.5 Gap 4.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
Winner Prediction Liberty · 94%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 17–40Final 3–35 · 18.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Williams Stadium (VA)
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

THU OCT 8 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
South AlabamaMPR #114 · 3-2
FINAL56–49Pregame Matrix 26–32
Arkansas StateMPR #100 · 2-3
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total57.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Arkansas State -6.4 Market Arkansas State -1.5 Gap 4.9 ptsResult LOSS · Arkansas State -1.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 57.5 Market O/U 57.5 Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 57.5
Winner Prediction Arkansas State · 66%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 26–32Final 56–49 · 47.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Centennial Bank Stadium
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Completed game. The original pregame forecast and recorded market snapshot are preserved when available.

THU OCT 8 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
South FloridaMPR #80 · 4-1
FINAL24–31Pregame Matrix 28–32
UTSAMPR #73 · 4-1
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.2
Model Total59.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: UTSA -4.2 Market UTSA -7.0 Gap 2.8 ptsResult PUSH · South Florida +7.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 59.9 Market O/U 52.5 Gap 7.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner Prediction UTSA · 61%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 28–32Final 24–31 · 4.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Alamodome
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Closed to new selections; no current prekickoff quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. No fresh pregame forecast; game closed to new selections.

FRI OCT 9 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Florida StateMPR #32 · 3-2
FINAL20–44Pregame Matrix 24–27
LouisvilleMPR #28 · 2-3
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.0
Model Total51.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Louisville -3.0 Market Louisville -5.5 Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Florida State +5.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 51.1 Market O/U 58.5 Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
Winner Prediction Louisville · 58%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 24–27Final 20–44 · 12.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Closed without lockWeek 6Open Game Lab

Closed to new selections; no current prekickoff quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. No fresh pregame forecast; game closed to new selections.

FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
IowaMPR #22 · 4-1
FINAL41–24Pregame Matrix 23–25
WashingtonMPR #23 · 3-2
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Washington -2.1 Market Washington -2.5 Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · Iowa +2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.6 Market O/U 41.5 Gap 6.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 41.5
Winner Prediction Washington · 55%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 23–25Final 41–24 · 17.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Husky Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Iowa +3 (-118), Washington -3 (-102); O/U 40.5 (over -118, under -102). Recorded market quote. Game Day report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 7–19%.

FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
Washington StateMPR #92 · 1-4
FINAL16–17Pregame Matrix 23–26
Utah StateMPR #89 · 1-4
FavoriteUtah State
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.4
Model Total49.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Utah State -3.4 Market Utah State -4.0 Gap 0.6 ptsResult WIN · Washington State +4.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.2 Market O/U 42.5 Gap 6.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 42.5
Winner Prediction Utah State · 59%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 23–26Final 16–17 · 16.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Maverik Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Washington State +4 (-110), Utah State -4 (-110); O/U 43.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Game Day Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 1–5%.

FRI OCT 9 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
WyomingMPR #111 · 2-3
FINAL16–13Pregame Matrix 22–24
San Jose StateMPR #115 · 3-2
FavoriteSan Jose State
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.9
Model Total45.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: San Jose State -1.9 Market San Jose State -6.5 Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · Wyoming +6.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 45.9 Market O/U 43.5 Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 43.5
Winner Prediction San Jose State · 55%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 22–24Final 16–13 · 16.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
CEFCU Stadium
Week 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Wyoming +4.5 (-115), San Jose State -4.5 (-105); O/U 42.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 7 mph; precipitation 1–2%.

FRI OCT 9 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
Iowa StateMPR #66 · 3-2
FINAL10–24Pregame Matrix 15–33
BYUMPR #13 · 4-0
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: BYU -17.5 Market BYU -10.5 Gap 7.0 ptsResult WIN · BYU -10.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.0 Market O/U 48.5 Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 48.5
Winner Prediction BYU · 88%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 15–33Final 10–24 · 14.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Iowa State +11.5 (-112), BYU -11.5 (-108); O/U 46.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 2 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 7–27%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
ArizonaMPR #26 · 4-1
FINAL52–31Pregame Matrix 30–22
West VirginiaMPR #69 · 3-2
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total52.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Arizona -8.8 Market Arizona -3.0 Gap 5.8 ptsResult WIN · Arizona -3.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 52.1 Market O/U 60.5 Gap 8.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 60.5
Winner Prediction Arizona · 72%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 30–22Final 52–31 · 30.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Milan Puskar Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Arizona -3.5 (-108), West Virginia +3.5 (-112); O/U 60.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 1–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
IndianaMPR #6 · 5-0
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 31–20
NebraskaMPR #24 · 5-0
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total51.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Indiana -10.6 Market Indiana -8.5 Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · Indiana -8.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 51.2 Market O/U 52.5 Gap 1.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 52.5
Winner Prediction Indiana · 76%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 31–20Final 20–17 · 14.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Indiana -7.5 (-115), Nebraska +7.5 (-105); O/U 48.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 21 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
North CarolinaMPR #50 · 2-2
FINAL21–17Pregame Matrix 21–28
PittsburghMPR #39 · 5-0
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin6.9
Model Total49.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -6.9 Market Pittsburgh -4.0 Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · Pittsburgh -4.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.6 Market O/U 46.5 Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner Prediction Pittsburgh · 68%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 21–28Final 21–17 · 11.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Acrisure Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: North Carolina +3.5 (-108), Pittsburgh -3.5 (-112); O/U 47.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Pittsburgh: Mason Heintschel Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 1–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Sacramento StateMPR #134 · 1-4
FINAL10–38Pregame Matrix 17–30
Bowling GreenMPR #119 · 1-4
FavoriteBowling Green
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.6
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Bowling Green -13.6 Market Bowling Green -7.0 Gap 6.6 ptsResult WIN · Bowling Green -7.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.1 Market O/U 42.5 Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 42.5
Winner Prediction Bowling Green · 82%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 17–30Final 10–38 · 0.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Sacramento State +8.5 (-112), Bowling Green -8.5 (-108); O/U 43.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 1–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Texas A&MMPR #10 · 3-2
FINAL6–27Pregame Matrix 28–24
MissouriMPR #20 · 4-1
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.3
Model Total52.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Texas A&M -3.3 Market Missouri -4.5 Gap 7.8 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Texas A&M +4.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 52.2 Market O/U 48.5 Gap 3.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
Winner Prediction Texas A&M · 59%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 28–24Final 6–27 · 19.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Texas A&M +3.5 (-110), Missouri -3.5 (-110); O/U 49.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 6 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
TulaneMPR #90 · 2-2
FINAL17–20Pregame Matrix 23–28
ArmyMPR #81 · 2-2
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Army -5.0 Market Army -3.5 Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · Army -3.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 51.3 Market O/U 46.5 Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 46.5
Winner Prediction Army · 63%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 23–28Final 17–20 · 14.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Michie Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Tulane +3.5 (-112), Army -3.5 (-108); O/U 48.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 2 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
UCFMPR #60 · 3-2
FINAL28–42Pregame Matrix 20–30
Oklahoma StateMPR #34 · 3-1
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.5
Model Total49.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -9.5 Market Oklahoma State -10.0 Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · UCF +10.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.9 Market O/U 53.5 Gap 3.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
Winner Prediction Oklahoma State · 74%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 20–30Final 28–42 · 20.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Boone Pickens Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: UCF +10.5 (-108), Oklahoma State -10.5 (-112); O/U 53.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. UCF: Alonza Barnett III Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 8 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Wake ForestMPR #48 · 4-1
FINAL38–14Pregame Matrix 24–27
NC StateMPR #55 · 3-2
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob58%
Model Margin3.0
Model Total51.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: NC State -3.0 Market Wake Forest -3.5 Gap 6.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · NC State +3.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 51.0 Market O/U 60.5 Gap 9.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 60.5
Winner Prediction NC State · 58%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 24–27Final 38–14 · 1.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Carter-Finley Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Wake Forest -3 (-115), NC State +3 (-105); O/U 58.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 19–65%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:30 PM EDTFINAL
Ball StateMPR #136 · 1-4
FINAL14–45Pregame Matrix 4–43
NorthwesternMPR #36 · 3-1
FavoriteNorthwestern
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin38.8
Model Total46.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Northwestern -38.8 Market Northwestern -36.5 Gap 2.3 ptsResult LOSS · Northwestern -36.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 46.2 Market O/U 52.5 Gap 6.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
Winner Prediction Northwestern · 100%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 4–43Final 14–45 · 12.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Ryan Field
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Ball State +35.5 (-108), Northwestern -35.5 (-112); O/U 53.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
South CarolinaMPR #33 · 2-3
FINAL38–19Pregame Matrix 20–28
FloridaMPR #15 · 4-1
FavoriteFlorida
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Florida -8.8 Market Florida -14.0 Gap 5.2 ptsResult WIN · South Carolina +14.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.2 Market O/U 61.5 Gap 13.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 61.5
Winner Prediction Florida · 72%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 20–28Final 38–19 · 8.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: South Carolina +10.5 (-105), Florida -10.5 (-115); O/U 58.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 18 mph; precipitation 42–67%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Old DominionMPR #101 · 1-4
FINAL10–3Pregame Matrix 25–25
Appalachian StateMPR #110 · 3-1
FavoriteAppalachian State
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total49.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Appalachian State -0.5 Market Appalachian State -10.0 Gap 9.5 ptsResult WIN · Old Dominion +10.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.7 Market O/U 50.5 Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
Winner Prediction Appalachian State · 51%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 25–25Final 10–3 · 36.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Week 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Old Dominion +10 (-112), Appalachian State -10 (-108); O/U 47.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 18 mph; precipitation 70–89%.

SAT OCT 10 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
Miami (OH)MPR #85 · 2-3
FINAL20–19Pregame Matrix 34–12
MassachusettsMPR #137 · 4-1
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total46.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -22.0 Market Miami (OH) -2.5 Gap 19.5 ptsResult LOSS · Miami (OH) -2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 46.2 Market O/U 47.5 Gap 1.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 47.5
Winner Prediction Miami (OH) · 93%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 34–12Final 20–19 · 7.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Miami (OH) -4.5 (-112), Massachusetts +4.5 (-108); O/U 44.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 2 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
BuffaloMPR #118 · 2-3
FINAL23–8Pregame Matrix 19–25
ToledoMPR #103 · 4-1
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.4
Model Total43.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Toledo -6.4 Market Toledo -19.5 Gap 13.1 ptsResult WIN · Buffalo +19.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 43.6 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 11.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner Prediction Toledo · 67%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 19–25Final 23–8 · 12.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Glass Bowl
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Buffalo +18.5 (-108), Toledo -18.5 (-112); O/U 55.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Central MichiganMPR #109 · 3-2
FINAL14–31Pregame Matrix 21–21
OhioMPR #117 · 3-2
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.8
Model Total42.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Ohio -0.8 Market Ohio -3.5 Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · Central Michigan +3.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 42.2 Market O/U 47.5 Gap 5.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 47.5
Winner Prediction Ohio · 52%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 21–21Final 14–31 · 2.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Peden Stadium
Week 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Central Michigan +1.5 (-105), Ohio -1.5 (-115); O/U 46.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 2–5%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
CharlotteMPR #138 · 0-5
FINAL10–50Pregame Matrix 16–41
North TexasMPR #107 · 3-2
FavoriteNorth Texas
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.4
Model Total57.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: North Texas -25.4 Market North Texas -27.5 Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · Charlotte +27.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 57.3 Market O/U 59.5 Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 59.5
Winner Prediction North Texas · 95%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 16–41Final 10–50 · 2.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
DATCU Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Charlotte +28.5 (-108), North Texas -28.5 (-112); O/U 57.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
DukeMPR #43 · 4-0
FINAL25–28Pregame Matrix 29–27
Georgia TechMPR #58 · 1-3
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.0
Model Total57.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Duke -2.0 Market Duke -7.0 Gap 5.0 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Tech +7.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 57.0 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 7.5 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction Duke · 55%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 29–27Final 25–28 · 4.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Bobby Dodd Stadium
Week 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Duke -6.5 (-115), Georgia Tech +6.5 (-105); O/U 43.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 74–96%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Eastern MichiganMPR #123 · 3-3
FINAL25–23Pregame Matrix 25–22
AkronMPR #129 · 1-4
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.2
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Eastern Michigan -2.2 Market Eastern Michigan -6.5 Gap 4.3 ptsResult WIN · Akron +6.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.1 Market O/U 50.5 Gap 3.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
Winner Prediction Eastern Michigan · 56%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 25–22Final 25–23 · 0.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
InfoCision Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Eastern Michigan -5.5 (-110), Akron +5.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
HoustonMPR #27 · 4-1
FINAL35–16Pregame Matrix 27–29
Kansas StateMPR #35 · 3-1
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total55.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Kansas State -1.7 Market Kansas State -2.5 Gap 0.8 ptsResult WIN · Houston +2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.8 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 0.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
Winner Prediction Kansas State · 54%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 27–29Final 35–16 · 4.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Week 6CLOSEST MATRIX GAMEOpen Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Houston +2.5 (-110), Kansas State -2.5 (-110); O/U 55.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
IllinoisMPR #44 · 2-3
FINAL38–37Pregame Matrix 30–24
Michigan StateMPR #70 · 2-3
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total53.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Illinois -6.0 Market Illinois -3.5 Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Illinois -3.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 53.4 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 3.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction Illinois · 66%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 30–24Final 38–37 · 21.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Spartan Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Illinois -2.5 (-120), Michigan State +2.5 (+100); O/U 47.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 0–2%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Kent StateMPR #128 · 2-3
FINAL7–38Pregame Matrix 16–32
Western MichiganMPR #91 · 3-2
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.5
Model Total47.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Western Michigan -16.5 Market Western Michigan -13.5 Gap 3.0 ptsResult WIN · Western Michigan -13.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.5 Market O/U 43.5 Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · OVER 43.5
Winner Prediction Western Michigan · 86%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 16–32Final 7–38 · 2.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Waldo Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Kent State +14 (-112), Western Michigan -14 (-108); O/U 43.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–3%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Ole MissMPR #17 · 3-1
FINAL52–17Pregame Matrix 32–26
VanderbiltMPR #40 · 3-2
FavoriteOle Miss
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total57.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Ole Miss -5.5 Market Ole Miss -10.0 Gap 4.5 ptsResult LOSS · Vanderbilt +10.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 57.6 Market O/U 59.5 Gap 1.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 59.5
Winner Prediction Ole Miss · 64%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 32–26Final 52–17 · 11.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
FirstBank Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Ole Miss -9.5 (-112), Vanderbilt +9.5 (-108); O/U 54.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 78–96%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
StanfordMPR #84 · 2-3
FINAL7–58Pregame Matrix 8–43
Notre DameMPR #4 · 5-0
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin34.4
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Notre Dame -34.4 Market Notre Dame -37.5 Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · Stanford +37.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 51.3 Market O/U 53.5 Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
Winner Prediction Notre Dame · 99%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 8–43Final 7–58 · 13.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Notre Dame Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Stanford +39.5 (-108), Notre Dame -39.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
TexasMPR #7 · 4-0
FINAL24–27Pregame Matrix 28–20
OklahomaMPR #14 · 2-2
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.9
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Texas -7.9 Market Texas -7.5 Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Texas -7.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.1 Market O/U 39.5 Gap 8.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 39.5
Winner Prediction Texas · 70%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 28–20Final 24–27 · 2.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Cotton Bowl
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Texas -7.5 (-105), Oklahoma +7.5 (-115); O/U 39.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
TulsaMPR #99 · 3-2
FINAL26–34Pregame Matrix 23–32
NavyMPR #75 · 1-3
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.4
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Navy -9.4 Market Navy -2.5 Gap 6.9 ptsResult WIN · Navy -2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.4 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 5.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction Navy · 73%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 23–32Final 26–34 · 4.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Tulsa +1.5 (-105), Navy -1.5 (-115); O/U 48.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 9 mph; precipitation 1–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
UCLAMPR #38 · 4-0
FINAL17–15Pregame Matrix 17–39
OregonMPR #3 · 3-1
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total55.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Oregon -22.0 Market Oregon -11.5 Gap 10.5 ptsResult LOSS · Oregon -11.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.0 Market O/U 59.5 Gap 4.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 59.5
Winner Prediction Oregon · 93%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 17–39Final 17–15 · 23.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Autzen Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: UCLA +10.5 (-112), Oregon -10.5 (-108); O/U 58.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Oregon: Dante Moore Out Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 4–7%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Virginia TechMPR #31 · 4-1
FINAL20–25Pregame Matrix 30–25
CaliforniaMPR #64 · 2-3
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total55.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -5.5 Market Virginia Tech -9.5 Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · California +9.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.0 Market O/U 53.5 Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner Prediction Virginia Tech · 64%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 30–25Final 20–25 · 10.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Virginia Tech -10 (-110), California +10 (-110); O/U 53.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. California: Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele Questionable Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 0–3%.

SAT OCT 10 · 3:45 PM EDTFINAL
UConnMPR #105 · 2-3
FINAL34–20Pregame Matrix 25–31
TempleMPR #93 · 2-3
FavoriteTemple
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total56.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Temple -5.3 Market Temple -3.5 Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · Temple -3.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 56.3 Market O/U 54.5 Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 54.5
Winner Prediction Temple · 64%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 25–31Final 34–20 · 2.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Lincoln Financial Field
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: UConn +3.5 (-108), Temple -3.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 1–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
RiceMPR #121 · 1-4
FINAL12–28Pregame Matrix 18–31
East CarolinaMPR #82 · 2-2
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.5
Model Total49.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: East Carolina -12.5 Market East Carolina -10.0 Gap 2.5 ptsResult WIN · East Carolina -10.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.5 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 0.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner Prediction East Carolina · 80%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 18–31Final 12–28 · 9.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Rice +10 (-108), East Carolina -10 (-112); O/U 46.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 14 mph; precipitation 28–47%.

SAT OCT 10 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
MarylandMPR #63 · 2-3
FINAL16–45Pregame Matrix 8–41
Ohio StateMPR #1 · 4-1
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin32.6
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Ohio State -32.6 Market Ohio State -34.5 Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · Maryland +34.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.7 Market O/U 56.5 Gap 7.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
Winner Prediction Ohio State · 99%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 8–41Final 16–45 · 12.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Ohio Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Maryland +33.5 (-112), Ohio State -33.5 (-108); O/U 56.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 1–12%.

SAT OCT 10 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
TennesseeMPR #12 · 4-1
FINAL24–17Pregame Matrix 38–25
ArkansasMPR #54 · 2-3
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.4
Model Total62.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Tennessee -12.4 Market Tennessee -13.5 Gap 1.1 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas +13.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 62.9 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 13.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction Tennessee · 80%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 38–25Final 24–17 · 21.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Tennessee -13.5 (-110), Arkansas +13.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Tennessee: Faizon Brandon Questionable Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
San Diego StateMPR #83 · 2-3
FINAL14–66Pregame Matrix 22–26
Oregon StateMPR #78 · 3-2
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total47.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Oregon State -4.0 Market Oregon State -14.0 Gap 10.0 ptsResult LOSS · San Diego State +14.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.2 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 8.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
Winner Prediction Oregon State · 61%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 22–26Final 14–66 · 32.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Reser Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: San Diego State +16.5 (-112), Oregon State -16.5 (-108); O/U 52.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Second Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 3–15%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Coastal CarolinaMPR #122 · 1-4
FINAL27–21Pregame Matrix 26–34
MarshallMPR #106 · 3-2
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total60.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Marshall -7.6 Market Marshall -3.0 Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · Marshall -3.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 60.5 Market O/U 57.5 Gap 3.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 57.5
Winner Prediction Marshall · 69%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 26–34Final 27–21 · 12.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Coastal Carolina +4 (-108), Marshall -4 (-112); O/U 58.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 12 mph; precipitation 23–54%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
LSUMPR #9 · 4-1
FINAL34–35Pregame Matrix 30–16
KentuckyMPR #51 · 4-1
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.1
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: LSU -14.1 Market LSU -9.5 Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · LSU -9.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 46.3 Market O/U 54.5 Gap 8.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
Winner Prediction LSU · 83%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 30–16Final 34–35 · 22.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Kroger Field
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: LSU -8.5 (-112), Kentucky +8.5 (-108); O/U 50.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 72–84%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
NevadaMPR #112 · 1-3
FINAL30–13Pregame Matrix 29–19
UTEPMPR #131 · 1-4
FavoriteNevada
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total48.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Nevada -9.1 Market Nevada -9.5 Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · UTEP +9.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.0 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 49.5
Winner Prediction Nevada · 73%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 29–19Final 30–13 · 5.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Sun Bowl
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Nevada -9.5 (-115), UTEP +9.5 (-105); O/U 49.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 1–5%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
North Dakota StateMPR #62 · 5-0
FINAL7–13Pregame Matrix 24–31
UNLVMPR #59 · 3-2
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: UNLV -7.4 Market North Dakota State -3.0 Gap 10.4 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · UNLV +3.0
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.3 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 5.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 49.5
Winner Prediction UNLV · 69%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 24–31Final 7–13 · 35.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Allegiant Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: North Dakota State -2.5 (-112), UNLV +2.5 (-108); O/U 47.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Indoor venue.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
UABMPR #124 · 3-2
FINAL13–38Pregame Matrix 21–38
MemphisMPR #65 · 4-1
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total59.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Memphis -17.5 Market Memphis -14.5 Gap 3.0 ptsResult WIN · Memphis -14.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 59.2 Market O/U 58.5 Gap 0.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 58.5
Winner Prediction Memphis · 88%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 21–38Final 13–38 · 8.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: UAB +14.5 (-112), Memphis -14.5 (-108); O/U 53.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 36–58%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Air ForceMPR #77 · 3-1
FINAL28–7Pregame Matrix 32–17
Northern IllinoisMPR #127 · 0-4
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.2
Model Total49.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Air Force -14.2 Market Air Force -11.5 Gap 2.7 ptsResult WIN · Air Force -11.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.0 Market O/U 47.5 Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
Winner Prediction Air Force · 83%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 32–17Final 28–7 · 14.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Huskie Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Air Force -7 (-115), Northern Illinois +7 (-105); O/U 46.5 (over -115, under -105). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 10 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
GeorgiaMPR #2 · 5-0
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 25–23
AlabamaMPR #8 · 5-0
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Georgia -2.5 Market Alabama -1.5 Gap 4.0 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Georgia +1.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 48.1 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 7.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner Prediction Georgia · 57%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 25–23Final 20–17 · 11.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Georgia +1.5 (-108), Alabama -1.5 (-112); O/U 51.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 15 mph; precipitation 32–48%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
James MadisonMPR #61 · 5-0
FINAL27–24Pregame Matrix 31–23
Georgia SouthernMPR #97 · 2-3
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.8
Model Total53.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: James Madison -7.8 Market James Madison -8.5 Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Southern +8.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 53.5 Market O/U 53.5 Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 53.5
Winner Prediction James Madison · 70%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 31–23Final 27–24 · 2.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: James Madison -7.5 (-105), Georgia Southern +7.5 (-115); O/U 51.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 13 mph; precipitation 52–78%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
LouisianaMPR #96 · 4-1
FINAL31–32Pregame Matrix 27–30
Louisiana TechMPR #95 · 2-2
FavoriteLouisiana Tech
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.7
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Louisiana Tech -2.7 Market Louisiana Tech -2.5 Gap 0.2 ptsResult LOSS · Louisiana Tech -2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 56.7 Market O/U 48.5 Gap 8.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
Winner Prediction Louisiana Tech · 57%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 27–30Final 31–32 · 6.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Joe Aillet Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Louisiana +3 (-105), Louisiana Tech -3 (-115); O/U 48.5 (over -102, under -118). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
SyracuseMPR #74 · 2-2
FINAL25–28Pregame Matrix 20–27
VirginiaMPR #46 · 3-2
FavoriteVirginia
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.4
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Virginia -7.4 Market Virginia -9.5 Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · Syracuse +9.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.1 Market O/U 49.5 Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 49.5
Winner Prediction Virginia · 69%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 20–27Final 25–28 · 5.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Scott Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Syracuse +10 (-110), Virginia -10 (-110); O/U 50.5 (over -108, under -112). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 7 mph; precipitation 18–37%.

SAT OCT 10 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
USCMPR #16 · 5-1
FINAL31–23Pregame Matrix 26–28
Penn StateMPR #18 · 3-2
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin2.1
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Penn State -2.1 Market Penn State -1.5 Gap 0.6 ptsResult LOSS · Penn State -1.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 54.9 Market O/U 55.5 Gap 0.6 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
Winner Prediction Penn State · 55%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 26–28Final 31–23 · 0.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Beaver Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: USC +1.5 (-108), Penn State -1.5 (-112); O/U 54.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 3 mph; precipitation 0–1%.

SAT OCT 10 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
MinnesotaMPR #45 · 4-1
FINAL13–41Pregame Matrix 28–21
PurdueMPR #76 · 2-3
FavoriteMinnesota
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total49.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Minnesota -6.7 Market Minnesota -2.5 Gap 4.2 ptsResult LOSS · Minnesota -2.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 49.1 Market O/U 51.5 Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 51.5
Winner Prediction Minnesota · 67%Result WRONG
Score Prediction 28–21Final 13–41 · 4.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Ross-Ade Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Minnesota -2.5 (-115), Purdue +2.5 (-105); O/U 49.5 (over -112, under -108). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 8 mph; precipitation 6–6%.

SAT OCT 10 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
HawaiiMPR #94 · 1-4
FINAL12–30Pregame Matrix 19–34
Arizona StateMPR #52 · 2-2
FavoriteArizona State
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin14.9
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Arizona State -14.9 Market Arizona State -21.5 Gap 6.6 ptsResult WIN · Hawaii +21.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 52.6 Market O/U 51.5 Gap 1.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
Winner Prediction Arizona State · 84%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 19–34Final 12–30 · 10.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Mountain America Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Hawaii +21 (-112), Arizona State -21 (-108); O/U 50.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Availability report not captured in this recorded snapshot. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 34–72%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 10:15 PM EDTFINAL
KansasMPR #57 · 2-2
FINAL24–41Pregame Matrix 21–35
UtahMPR #19 · 4-0
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.2
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Utah -14.2 Market No recorded pregame line Result NO MARKET
Total Prediction Matrix: 55.4 Market O/U 52.5 Gap 2.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 52.5
Winner Prediction Utah · 83%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 21–35Final 24–41 · 9.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Rice-Eccles Stadium
Week 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Kansas +15.5 (-110), Utah -15.5 (-110); O/U 51.5 (over -105, under -115). Recorded market quote. Update 1 report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 20 mph; precipitation 12–88%. Thunderstorm flag.

SAT OCT 10 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Boise StateMPR #30 · 4-1
FINAL38–31Pregame Matrix 27–20
Fresno StateMPR #67 · 4-1
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.0
Model Total47.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
Spread Prediction Matrix: Boise State -7.0 Market Boise State -6.5 Gap 0.5 ptsResult WIN · Boise State -6.5
Total Prediction Matrix: 47.3 Market O/U 48.5 Gap 1.2 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 48.5
Winner Prediction Boise State · 68%Result RIGHT
Score Prediction 27–20Final 38–31 · 21.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Oct 4 · lines can move
Valley Children's Stadium
Quarterback availabilityWeek 6Open Game Lab

Friday observed DraftKings: Boise State -7 (-110), Fresno State +7 (-110); O/U 48.5 (over -110, under -110). Recorded market quote. Second Report report recorded; player availability and quarterback roles were noted. Game-window forecast: wind up to 5 mph; precipitation 0–0%.

THU OCT 1 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Western KentuckyMPR #97 · 1-3
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 30–25
New Mexico StateMPR #123 · 1-3
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total54.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Western Kentucky +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.4 / Market 53.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 30–25 · Final 13–34
Recorded pregame market
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
THU OCT 1 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
North TexasMPR #104 · 2-2
FINAL45–44Pregame Matrix 27–31
TulsaMPR #93 · 3-1
FavoriteTulsa
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total57.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Tulsa -1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 57.9 / Market 58.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–31 · Final 45–44
Recorded pregame market
H. A. Chapman Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
FRI OCT 2 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
LibertyMPR #92 · 3-1
FINAL30–14Pregame Matrix 31–28
DelawareMPR #111 · 2-2
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.5
Model Total58.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Delaware +6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.8 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–28 · Final 30–14
Recorded pregame market
Delaware Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
FRI OCT 2 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
PittsburghMPR #36 · 4-0
FINAL35–33Pregame Matrix 25–29
Virginia TechMPR #28 · 4-0
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total54.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Pittsburgh +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.1 / Market 53.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–29 · Final 35–33
Recorded pregame market
Lane Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
FRI OCT 2 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Penn StateMPR #18 · 3-1
FINAL13–34Pregame Matrix 27–20
NorthwesternMPR #45 · 2-1
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob68%
Model Margin7.2
Model Total47.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Penn State -3 · L
TotalMatrix 47.3 / Market 48.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–20 · Final 13–34
Recorded pregame market
Ryan Field
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
AlabamaMPR #11 · 4-0
FINAL56–23Pregame Matrix 31–21
Mississippi StateMPR #42 · 4-0
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin10.2
Model Total51.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Alabama -5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 51.8 / Market 59.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–21 · Final 56–23
Recorded pregame market
Davis Wade Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Boston CollegeMPR #74 · 2-2
FINAL16–25Pregame Matrix 18–35
SMUMPR #24 · 3-1
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.5
Model Total53.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Boston College +21 · W
TotalMatrix 53.5 / Market 56.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–35 · Final 16–25
Recorded pregame market
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
MichiganMPR #17 · 3-1
FINAL14–20Pregame Matrix 28–18
MinnesotaMPR #51 · 3-1
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.3
Model Total45.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Michigan -6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 45.7 / Market 44.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 28–18 · Final 14–20
Recorded pregame market
Huntington Bank Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Middle TennesseeMPR #132 · 2-2
FINAL0–55Pregame Matrix 13–42
KansasMPR #58 · 1-2
FavoriteKansas
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.7
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Kansas -20.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–42 · Final 0–55
Recorded pregame market
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Week 5Kansas -20.5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
NavyMPR #64 · 1-2
FINAL9–14Pregame Matrix 27–27
Air ForceMPR #78 · 2-1
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.0
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Navy +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 46.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 27–27 · Final 9–14
Recorded pregame market
Falcon Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Notre DameMPR #2 · 4-0
FINAL37–26Pregame Matrix 35–15
North CarolinaMPR #47 · 2-1
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.2
Model Total50.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix North Carolina +22.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.2 / Market 49.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–15 · Final 37–26
Recorded pregame market
Kenan Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
StanfordMPR #75 · 2-2
FINAL3–57Pregame Matrix 18–28
Wake ForestMPR #50 · 3-1
FavoriteWake Forest
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total46.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Stanford +12.5 · L
TotalMatrix 46.1 / Market 54.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–28 · Final 3–57
Recorded pregame market
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
SyracuseMPR #71 · 1-2
FINAL42–41Pregame Matrix 29–22
UConnMPR #109 · 2-2
FavoriteSyracuse
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Syracuse -5.5 · L
TotalMatrix 50.6 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–22 · Final 42–41
Recorded pregame market
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
UCFMPR #56 · 3-1
FINAL17–27Pregame Matrix 20–30
HoustonMPR #33 · 3-1
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.7
Model Total50.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix UCF +10.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.1 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–30 · Final 17–27
Recorded pregame market
TDECU Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
West VirginiaMPR #63 · 3-1
FINAL42–45Pregame Matrix 23–25
Iowa StateMPR #65 · 2-2
FavoriteIowa State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Iowa State -1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 48.2 / Market 53.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–25 · Final 42–45
Recorded pregame market
Jack Trice Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:30 PM EDTFINAL
Michigan StateMPR #66 · 2-2
FINAL3–31Pregame Matrix 21–24
WisconsinMPR #55 · 3-1
FavoriteWisconsin
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total44.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Michigan State +10 · L
TotalMatrix 44.8 / Market 44.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–24 · Final 3–31
Recorded pregame market
Camp Randall Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
VanderbiltMPR #34 · 3-1
FINAL14–38Pregame Matrix 17–38
GeorgiaMPR #3 · 4-0
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.3
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Vanderbilt +25.5 · W
TotalMatrix 54.5 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 17–38 · Final 14–38
Recorded pregame market
Sanford Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
Western MichiganMPR #94 · 2-2
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 23–20
BuffaloMPR #112 · 2-2
FavoriteWestern Michigan
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.6
Model Total43.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Buffalo +16.5 · W
TotalMatrix 43.3 / Market 50.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–20 · Final 20–17
Recorded pregame market
Broadview Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
ToledoMPR #110 · 3-1
FINAL39–24Pregame Matrix 29–17
Ball StateMPR #136 · 1-3
FavoriteToledo
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.5
Model Total46.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Ball State +17.5 · W
TotalMatrix 46.5 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–17 · Final 39–24
Recorded pregame market
Scheumann Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
AkronMPR #127 · 1-3
FINAL17–41Pregame Matrix 19–27
Central MichiganMPR #117 · 2-2
FavoriteCentral Michigan
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin7.7
Model Total45.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Central Michigan -5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 45.4 / Market 46.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–27 · Final 17–41
Recorded pregame market
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
AuburnMPR #25 · 3-1
FINAL14–24Pregame Matrix 25–30
TennesseeMPR #16 · 3-1
FavoriteTennessee
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total54.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Auburn +7.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.7 / Market 55.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–30 · Final 14–24
Recorded pregame market
Neyland Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Bowling GreenMPR #121 · 0-4
FINAL24–20Pregame Matrix 15–28
Miami (OH)MPR #84 · 2-2
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.2
Model Total42.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Bowling Green +15.5 · W
TotalMatrix 42.2 / Market 47.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 15–28 · Final 24–20
Recorded pregame market
Yager Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
CaliforniaMPR #59 · 2-2
FINAL31–39Pregame Matrix 29–29
UNLVMPR #70 · 2-2
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total58.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix California +1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.6 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–29 · Final 31–39
Recorded pregame market
Allegiant Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Eastern MichiganMPR #122 · 2-3
FINAL38–14Pregame Matrix 30–20
MassachusettsMPR #137 · 4-0
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.2
Model Total49.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Eastern Michigan +4 · W
TotalMatrix 49.8 / Market 48.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20 · Final 38–14
Recorded pregame market
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
FloridaMPR #19 · 4-0
FINAL17–45Pregame Matrix 24–25
MissouriMPR #20 · 3-1
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.6
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Missouri +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 48.5 / Market 56.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–25 · Final 17–45
Recorded pregame market
Memorial Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
LouisvilleMPR #27 · 2-2
FINAL28–31Pregame Matrix 29–25
NC StateMPR #61 · 2-2
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix NC State +6 · W
TotalMatrix 54.0 / Market 59.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 29–25 · Final 28–31
Recorded pregame market
Carter-Finley Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 11:00 AM EDTFINAL
MemphisMPR #62 · 3-1
FINAL59–8Pregame Matrix 43–14
CharlotteMPR #138 · 0-4
FavoriteMemphis
Model Win Prob97%
Model Margin28.4
Model Total56.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Memphis -21.5 · W
TotalMatrix 56.7 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 43–14 · Final 59–8
Recorded pregame market
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
OhioMPR #116 · 2-2
FINAL13–10Pregame Matrix 24–20
Kent StateMPR #128 · 2-2
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total44.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Kent State +5.5 · W
TotalMatrix 44.6 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–20 · Final 13–10
Recorded pregame market
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Ohio StateMPR #1 · 3-1
FINAL31–14Pregame Matrix 31–16
IowaMPR #23 · 4-0
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob84%
Model Margin15.1
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Ohio State -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 47.6 / Market 44.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–16 · Final 31–14
Recorded pregame market
Kinnick Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Old DominionMPR #90 · 1-3
FINAL10–42Pregame Matrix 33–20
Georgia StateMPR #130 · 3-1
FavoriteOld Dominion
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.1
Model Total52.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Old Dominion -1.5 · L
TotalMatrix 52.3 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 33–20 · Final 10–42
Recorded pregame market
Center Parc Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
SamfordFCS / Other
FINAL14–33Pregame Matrix 30–26
UABMPR #124 · 2-2
FavoriteSamford
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.8
Model Total55.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 55.5 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 30–26 · Final 14–33
Recorded pregame market
Protective Stadium
Week 5
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
VirginiaMPR #35 · 3-1
FINAL7–38Pregame Matrix 22–26
Florida StateMPR #41 · 2-2
FavoriteFlorida State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total48.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Florida State +3 · W
TotalMatrix 48.5 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–26 · Final 7–38
Recorded pregame market
Doak Campbell Stadium
Week 5Florida State +3Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
WyomingMPR #108 · 2-2
FINAL0–28Pregame Matrix 16–28
North Dakota StateMPR #60 · 4-0
FavoriteNorth Dakota State
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.8
Model Total44.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Wyoming +20.5 · L
TotalMatrix 44.6 / Market 47.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–28 · Final 0–28
Recorded pregame market
Fargodome
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 3:45 PM EDTFINAL
MarshallMPR #96 · 3-1
FINAL17–45Pregame Matrix 24–35
James MadisonMPR #67 · 4-0
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.0
Model Total58.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Marshall +15.5 · L
TotalMatrix 58.6 / Market 56.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35 · Final 17–45
Recorded pregame market
Bridgeforth Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
MarylandMPR #54 · 2-2
FINAL23–48Pregame Matrix 21–29
NebraskaMPR #32 · 4-0
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Maryland +13.5 · L
TotalMatrix 50.0 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–29 · Final 23–48
Recorded pregame market
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
UTEPMPR #129 · 1-3
FINAL7–61Pregame Matrix 12–38
New MexicoMPR #69 · 3-1
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob96%
Model Margin25.6
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix New Mexico -21 · W
TotalMatrix 50.0 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 12–38 · Final 7–61
Recorded pregame market
University Stadium (NM)
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
KentuckyMPR #49 · 3-1
FINAL35–34Pregame Matrix 20–28
South CarolinaMPR #26 · 2-2
FavoriteSouth Carolina
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.8
Model Total47.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix South Carolina -3.5 · L
TotalMatrix 47.9 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–28 · Final 35–34
Recorded pregame market
Williams-Brice Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
PurdueMPR #82 · 1-3
FINAL24–17Pregame Matrix 20–34
IllinoisMPR #37 · 2-2
FavoriteIllinois
Model Win Prob83%
Model Margin14.5
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Illinois -10 · L
TotalMatrix 54.0 / Market 60.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–34 · Final 24–17
Recorded pregame market
Gies Memorial Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Oregon StateMPR #85 · 2-2
FINAL56–26Pregame Matrix 24–23
Colorado StateMPR #100 · 2-2
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob50%
Model Margin0.2
Model Total47.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Colorado State +4 · L
TotalMatrix 47.0 / Market 59.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–23 · Final 56–26
Recorded pregame market
Canvas Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Texas SouthernFCS / Other
FINAL10–66Pregame Matrix 20–38
Florida AtlanticMPR #89 · 3-1
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.4
Model Total57.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 57.7 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–38 · Final 10–66
Recorded pregame market
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Week 5
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
ArkansasMPR #57 · 2-2
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 19–40
Texas A&MMPR #10 · 2-2
FavoriteTexas A&M
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin21.1
Model Total59.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Texas A&M -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 59.4 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–40 · Final 7–34
Recorded pregame market
Kyle Field
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
BYUMPR #15 · 3-0
FINAL17–10Pregame Matrix 29–24
TCUMPR #39 · 2-2
FavoriteBYU
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.1
Model Total52.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix TCU +6.5 · L
TotalMatrix 52.3 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–24 · Final 17–10
Recorded pregame market
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Georgia SouthernMPR #103 · 1-3
FINAL31–24Pregame Matrix 29–26
Coastal CarolinaMPR #119 · 1-3
FavoriteGeorgia Southern
Model Win Prob59%
Model Margin3.5
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Georgia Southern -1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 52.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–26 · Final 31–24
Recorded pregame market
Brooks Stadium (SC)
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
UL MonroeMPR #133 · 0-4
FINAL35–52Pregame Matrix 21–35
South AlabamaMPR #115 · 2-2
FavoriteSouth Alabama
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.7
Model Total55.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix UL Monroe +14.5 · L
TotalMatrix 55.4 / Market 55.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–35 · Final 35–52
Recorded pregame market
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
UTSAMPR #73 · 3-1
FINAL16–14Pregame Matrix 33–23
RiceMPR #120 · 1-3
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin10.9
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Rice +11.5 · W
TotalMatrix 56.0 / Market 54.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–23 · Final 16–14
Recorded pregame market
Rice Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
ArmyMPR #79 · 2-1
FINAL29–31Pregame Matrix 28–25
Louisiana TechMPR #99 · 1-2
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob57%
Model Margin2.8
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Louisiana Tech +3.5 · W
TotalMatrix 52.6 / Market 44.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 28–25 · Final 29–31
Recorded pregame market
Joe Aillet Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Miami (FL)MPR #7 · 4-0
FINAL41–13Pregame Matrix 28–18
ClemsonMPR #31 · 3-1
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.6
Model Total46.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Clemson +17.5 · L
TotalMatrix 46.3 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–18 · Final 41–13
Recorded pregame market
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
Week 5Clemson +17.5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
TempleMPR #101 · 1-3
FINAL17–13Pregame Matrix 25–33
South FloridaMPR #77 · 4-0
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.5
Model Total58.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix South Florida -6 · L
TotalMatrix 58.1 / Market 51.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–33 · Final 17–13
Recorded pregame market
Raymond James Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Texas TechMPR #9 · 4-0
FINAL29–7Pregame Matrix 35–16
ColoradoMPR #68 · 2-2
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.5
Model Total50.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Texas Tech -14.5 · W
TotalMatrix 50.7 / Market 50.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–16 · Final 29–7
Recorded pregame market
Folsom Field
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Utah StateMPR #95 · 1-3
FINAL18–37Pregame Matrix 18–36
Boise StateMPR #43 · 3-1
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.5
Model Total53.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Utah State +21 · W
TotalMatrix 53.7 / Market 49.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–36 · Final 18–37
Recorded pregame market
Albertsons Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
WashingtonMPR #21 · 3-1
FINAL21–25Pregame Matrix 23–31
USCMPR #12 · 4-1
FavoriteUSC
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin8.0
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Washington +9.5 · W
TotalMatrix 53.9 / Market 55.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–31 · Final 21–25
Recorded pregame market
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 7:45 PM EDTFINAL
McNeeseFCS / Other
FINAL14–63Pregame Matrix 3–45
LSUMPR #8 · 3-1
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin43.5
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix — · NO MARKET
TotalMatrix 48.7 / Market — · NO MARKET
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 3–45 · Final 14–63
Recorded pregame market
Tiger Stadium (LA)
Week 5
SAT OCT 3 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Arkansas StateMPR #98 · 2-2
FINAL20–23Pregame Matrix 28–30
LouisianaMPR #102 · 3-1
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.6
Model Total58.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arkansas State +4.5 · W
TotalMatrix 58.4 / Market 49.5 · L
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–30 · Final 20–23
Recorded pregame market
Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
IndianaMPR #4 · 4-0
FINAL47–15Pregame Matrix 40–15
RutgersMPR #72 · 1-3
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Indiana -23.5 · W
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 40–15 · Final 47–15
Recorded pregame market
SHI Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 9:30 PM EDTFINAL
Fresno StateMPR #80 · 3-1
FINAL26–6Pregame Matrix 22–21
Washington StateMPR #91 · 1-3
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob52%
Model Margin0.7
Model Total43.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Fresno State +1.5 · W
TotalMatrix 43.1 / Market 45.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–21 · Final 26–6
Recorded pregame market
Martin Stadium
Week 5UPSET WATCH · Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
BaylorMPR #53 · 3-1
FINAL55–19Pregame Matrix 25–30
Arizona StateMPR #46 · 2-1
FavoriteArizona State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.4
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arizona State -4 · L
TotalMatrix 55.3 / Market 51.5 · W
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 25–30 · Final 55–19
Recorded pregame market
Mountain America Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Texas StateMPR #86 · 2-2
FINAL29–31Pregame Matrix 27–32
San Diego StateMPR #76 · 1-3
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.4
Model Total59.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix San Diego State +4.5 · W
TotalMatrix 59.5 / Market 60.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 27–32 · Final 29–31
Recorded pregame market
Snapdragon Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 11:00 PM EDTFINAL
CincinnatiMPR #52 · 4-0
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 22–31
ArizonaMPR #29 · 3-1
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.0
Model Total53.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Arizona -7 · W
TotalMatrix 53.8 / Market 54.5 · W
WinnerRIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–31 · Final 7–34
Recorded pregame market
Casino Del Sol Stadium
Week 5Open Game Lab
SAT OCT 3 · 11:59 PM EDTFINAL
San Jose StateMPR #118 · 2-2
FINAL20–16Pregame Matrix 20–34
HawaiiMPR #83 · 1-3
FavoriteHawaii
Model Win Prob81%
Model Margin13.3
Model Total54.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadMatrix Hawaii -4.5 · L
TotalMatrix 54.2 / Market 52.5 · L
WinnerWRONG
ScorePrediction 20–34 · Final 20–16
Recorded pregame market
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Week 5Open Game Lab
THU SEP 24 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
LibertyMPR #94 · 2-1
FINAL34–17Pregame Matrix 31–26
Coastal CarolinaMPR #118 · 1-2
FavoriteLiberty
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total56.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Liberty -5.0Market Liberty -2.5Gap 2.5 ptsResult WIN · Liberty -2.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.8Market O/U 50.5Gap 6.3 ptsResult WIN · OVER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Liberty · 63%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–26Final 34–17 · 5.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Brooks Stadium (SC)
Week 4Open Game Lab
FRI SEP 25 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
ArmyMPR #79 · 1-1
FINAL21–17Pregame Matrix 30–26
TempleMPR #101 · 1-2
FavoriteArmy
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin3.7
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Army -3.7Market Army -3.0Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · Army -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 48.5Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Army · 60%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–26Final 21–17 · 17.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Lincoln Financial Field
Week 4LEANOpen Game Lab
FRI SEP 25 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
HowardFCS / Other
FINAL7–58Pregame Matrix 15–40
RutgersMPR #72 · 0-3
FavoriteRutgers
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.1
Model Total55.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Rutgers -25.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.6Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Rutgers · 95%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 15–40Final 7–58 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SHI Stadium
Week 4
FRI SEP 25 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
NavyMPR #64 · 1-1
FINAL20–24Pregame Matrix 37–21
UABMPR #124 · 1-2
FavoriteNavy
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total57.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Navy -16.1Market Navy -7.0Gap 9.1 ptsResult LOSS · Navy -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.3Market O/U 51.5Gap 5.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Navy · 86%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 37–21Final 20–24 · 13.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Protective Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
FRI SEP 25 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
NorthwesternMPR #46 · 2-0
FINAL23–29Pregame Matrix 13–35
IndianaMPR #4 · 3-0
FavoriteIndiana
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.0
Model Total47.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Indiana -22.0Market Indiana -21.0Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Indiana -21.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.4Market O/U 49.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 49.5
WinnerPrediction Indiana · 93%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–35Final 23–29 · 4.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Week 4Open Game Lab
FRI SEP 25 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
ClemsonMPR #31 · 2-1
FINAL24–10Pregame Matrix 28–23
CaliforniaMPR #56 · 2-1
FavoriteClemson
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total50.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Clemson -5.0Market California -1.5Gap 6.5 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Clemson +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.1Market O/U 50.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Clemson · 63%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–23Final 24–10 · 16.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
California Memorial Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Ball StateMPR #136 · 1-2
FINAL13–26Pregame Matrix 21–29
Kent StateMPR #128 · 1-2
FavoriteKent State
Model Win Prob70%
Model Margin8.0
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kent State -8.0Market Kent State -3.5Gap 4.5 ptsResult WIN · Kent State -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.5 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Kent State · 70%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–29Final 13–26 · 11.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
BucknellFCS / Other
FINAL0–59Pregame Matrix 9–44
PittsburghMPR #36 · 3-0
FavoritePittsburgh
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin35.5
Model Total53.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Pittsburgh -35.5Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.2Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Pittsburgh · 99%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 9–44Final 0–59 · 5.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Acrisure Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
ColoradoMPR #68 · 2-1
FINAL13–23Pregame Matrix 24–32
BaylorMPR #51 · 2-1
FavoriteBaylor
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total56.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Baylor -7.6Market Baylor -10.0Gap 2.4 ptsResult PUSH · Colorado +10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.0Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Baylor · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–32Final 13–23 · 20.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
McLane Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Colorado StateMPR #96 · 2-1
FINAL45–59Pregame Matrix 23–31
UTSAMPR #73 · 2-1
FavoriteUTSA
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.4
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UTSA -8.4Market UTSA -13.5Gap 5.1 ptsResult LOSS · Colorado State +13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.9Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction UTSA · 71%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–31Final 45–59 · 50.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Alamodome
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
IllinoisMPR #37 · 2-1
FINAL19–42Pregame Matrix 13–38
Ohio StateMPR #1 · 2-1
FavoriteOhio State
Model Win Prob95%
Model Margin25.3
Model Total51.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio State -25.3Market Ohio State -27.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult WIN · Illinois +27.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.6Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Ohio State · 95%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 13–38Final 19–42 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Ohio Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Sam HoustonMPR #135 · 1-2
FINAL14–49Pregame Matrix 5–47
Texas TechMPR #9 · 3-0
FavoriteTexas Tech
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin48.7
Model Total52.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas Tech -48.7Market Texas Tech -34.5Gap 14.2 ptsResult WIN · Texas Tech -34.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 2.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Texas Tech · 100%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 5–47Final 14–49 · 10.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Galaxy Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · Texas Tech -34.5Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
San Diego StateMPR #75 · 1-2
FINAL16–41Pregame Matrix 26–19
ToledoMPR #110 · 2-1
FavoriteSan Diego State
Model Win Prob67%
Model Margin6.7
Model Total45.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: San Diego State -6.7Market Toledo -3.0Gap 9.7 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · San Diego State +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.5Market O/U 52.5Gap 7.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 52.5
WinnerPrediction San Diego State · 67%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–19Final 16–41 · 11.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Glass Bowl
Week 4Key Signal · San Diego State +3Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
TexasMPR #6 · 3-0
FINAL20–17Pregame Matrix 33–25
TennesseeMPR #16 · 3-0
FavoriteTexas
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total57.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas -7.6Market Texas -4.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · Texas -4.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.4Market O/U 55.5Gap 1.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Texas · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–25Final 20–17 · 20.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Neyland Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
UNLVMPR #70 · 1-2
FINAL38–10Pregame Matrix 35–17
AkronMPR #127 · 1-2
FavoriteUNLV
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.1
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UNLV -18.1Market UNLV -13.5Gap 4.6 ptsResult WIN · UNLV -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.0 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction UNLV · 89%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 35–17Final 38–10 · 4.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
InfoCision Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Virginia TechMPR #28 · 3-0
FINAL21–14Pregame Matrix 32–22
Boston CollegeMPR #74 · 2-1
FavoriteVirginia Tech
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.9
Model Total53.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Virginia Tech -9.9Market Virginia Tech -14.0Gap 4.1 ptsResult WIN · Boston College +14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.4Market O/U 48.5Gap 4.9 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Virginia Tech · 74%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 32–22Final 21–14 · 18.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:00 PM EDTFINAL
Wake ForestMPR #52 · 2-1
FINAL30–27Pregame Matrix 19–29
LouisvilleMPR #27 · 2-1
FavoriteLouisville
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.6
Model Total48.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisville -9.6Market Louisville -12.5Gap 2.9 ptsResult WIN · Wake Forest +12.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.1Market O/U 58.5Gap 10.4 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Louisville · 74%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 19–29Final 30–27 · 8.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · UNDER 58.5Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 12:45 PM EDTFINAL
South AlabamaMPR #115 · 2-1
FINAL21–45Pregame Matrix 17–36
KentuckyMPR #50 · 2-1
FavoriteKentucky
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.2
Model Total52.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kentucky -19.2Market Kentucky -20.5Gap 1.3 ptsResult LOSS · South Alabama +20.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.7Market O/U 54.5Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Kentucky · 90%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 17–36Final 21–45 · 13.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Kroger Field
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 1:00 PM EDTFINAL
LindenwoodFCS / Other
FINAL3–29Pregame Matrix 24–27
Eastern MichiganMPR #122 · 1-3
FavoriteEastern Michigan
Model Win Prob56%
Model Margin2.2
Model Total50.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Eastern Michigan -2.2Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.9Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Eastern Michigan · 56%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–27Final 3–29 · 18.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Rynearson Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 1:30 PM EDTFINAL
UCLAMPR #42 · 3-0
FINAL54–3Pregame Matrix 26–26
MarylandMPR #49 · 2-1
FavoriteUCLA
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: UCLA -0.5Market UCLA -1.5Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Maryland +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 56.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
WinnerPrediction UCLA · 51%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 26–26Final 54–3 · 4.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
SECU Stadium
Week 4COIN FLIPOpen Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
Northern IllinoisMPR #125 · 0-3
FINAL14–35Pregame Matrix 26–26
Georgia StateMPR #130 · 2-1
FavoriteNorthern Illinois
Model Win Prob51%
Model Margin0.5
Model Total52.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Northern Illinois -0.5Market Georgia State -10.0Gap 10.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Northern Illinois +10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.4Market O/U 55.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Northern Illinois · 51%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–26Final 14–35 · 3.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Center Parc Stadium
Week 4MATRIX FAVORITE FLIPKey Signal · Northern Illinois +10Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 2:00 PM EDTFINAL
Notre DameMPR #2 · 3-0
FINAL49–10Pregame Matrix 41–14
PurdueMPR #82 · 1-2
FavoriteNotre Dame
Model Win Prob96%
Model Margin27.1
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Notre Dame -27.1Market Notre Dame -27.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult LOSS · Purdue +27.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Notre Dame · 96%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 41–14Final 49–10 · 4.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Ross-Ade Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:00 PM EDTFINAL
Central ArkansasFCS / Other
FINAL7–34Pregame Matrix 14–37
Florida StateMPR #40 · 1-2
FavoriteFlorida State
Model Win Prob93%
Model Margin22.5
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida State -22.5Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.3Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Florida State · 93%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 14–37Final 7–34 · 10.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Doak Campbell Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:00 PM EDTFINAL
HawaiiMPR #83 · 1-2
FINAL10–27Pregame Matrix 26–22
WyomingMPR #109 · 1-2
FavoriteHawaii
Model Win Prob60%
Model Margin4.0
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Hawaii -4.0Market Hawaii -3.0Gap 1.0 ptsResult LOSS · Hawaii -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.6Market O/U 44.5Gap 3.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Hawaii · 60%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 26–22Final 10–27 · 10.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
War Memorial Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Boise StateMPR #43 · 2-1
FINAL32–7Pregame Matrix 30–19
Western MichiganMPR #93 · 2-1
FavoriteBoise State
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.7
Model Total48.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Boise State -10.7Market Boise State -7.0Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · Boise State -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.4Market O/U 50.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Boise State · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–19Final 32–7 · 9.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Waldo Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Gardner-WebbFCS / Other
FINAL35–36Pregame Matrix 24–35
MarshallMPR #97 · 2-1
FavoriteMarshall
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.2
Model Total58.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Marshall -11.2Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 58.7Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Marshall · 77%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35Final 35–36 · 12.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
IowaMPR #23 · 3-0
FINAL20–19Pregame Matrix 21–26
MichiganMPR #17 · 3-0
FavoriteMichigan
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.6
Model Total47.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Michigan -5.6Market Michigan -5.5Gap 0.1 ptsResult LOSS · Michigan -5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.1Market O/U 38.5Gap 8.6 ptsResult WIN · OVER 38.5
WinnerPrediction Michigan · 65%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 21–26Final 20–19 · 8.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Michigan Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
New MexicoMPR #69 · 2-1
FINAL42–18Pregame Matrix 33–17
New Mexico StateMPR #123 · 1-2
FavoriteNew Mexico
Model Win Prob85%
Model Margin15.8
Model Total50.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: New Mexico -15.8Market New Mexico -11.5Gap 4.3 ptsResult WIN · New Mexico -11.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.6Market O/U 48.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction New Mexico · 85%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 33–17Final 42–18 · 9.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
OklahomaMPR #13 · 2-1
FINAL13–41Pregame Matrix 19–30
GeorgiaMPR #3 · 3-0
FavoriteGeorgia
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.8
Model Total48.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia -10.8Market Georgia -14.0Gap 3.2 ptsResult LOSS · Oklahoma +14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.7Market O/U 44.5Gap 4.2 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Georgia · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–30Final 13–41 · 5.3 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Sanford Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Ole MissMPR #14 · 3-0
FINAL28–52Pregame Matrix 25–26
FloridaMPR #19 · 3-0
FavoriteFlorida
Model Win Prob53%
Model Margin1.0
Model Total52.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida -1.0Market Florida -3.0Gap 2.0 ptsResult LOSS · Ole Miss +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.0Market O/U 58.5Gap 6.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Florida · 53%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–26Final 28–52 · 28.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Week 4COIN FLIPOpen Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
Robert MorrisFCS / Other
FINAL28–31Pregame Matrix 19–28
BuffaloMPR #112 · 1-2
FavoriteBuffalo
Model Win Prob73%
Model Margin9.1
Model Total47.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Buffalo -9.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.4Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Buffalo · 73%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–28Final 28–31 · 11.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Broadview Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
StonehillFCS / Other
FINAL7–35Pregame Matrix 18–27
OhioMPR #117 · 1-2
FavoriteOhio
Model Win Prob72%
Model Margin8.9
Model Total44.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Ohio -8.9Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.8Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Ohio · 72%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–27Final 7–35 · 2.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Peden Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
TCUMPR #38 · 2-1
FINAL13–21Pregame Matrix 27–22
UCFMPR #57 · 2-1
FavoriteTCU
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.8
Model Total49.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: TCU -4.8Market TCU -3.0Gap 1.8 ptsResult LOSS · TCU -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.3Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction TCU · 62%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 27–22Final 13–21 · 15.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Acrisure Bounce House
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
UConnMPR #108 · 2-1
FINAL21–24Pregame Matrix 20–28
Miami (OH)MPR #84 · 1-2
FavoriteMiami (OH)
Model Win Prob71%
Model Margin8.3
Model Total47.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (OH) -8.3Market Miami (OH) -3.5Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · Miami (OH) -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.8Market O/U 51.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Miami (OH) · 71%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–28Final 21–24 · 2.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Yager Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
UtahMPR #22 · 3-0
FINAL31–17Pregame Matrix 30–20
Iowa StateMPR #65 · 2-1
FavoriteUtah
Model Win Prob75%
Model Margin10.2
Model Total50.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah -10.2Market Utah -8.5Gap 1.7 ptsResult WIN · Utah -8.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.0Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Utah · 75%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20Final 31–17 · 2.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Jack Trice Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 3:30 PM EDTFINAL
William & MaryFCS / Other
FINAL7–62Pregame Matrix 19–37
DukeMPR #44 · 3-0
FavoriteDuke
Model Win Prob88%
Model Margin17.8
Model Total56.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Duke -17.8Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Duke · 88%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–37Final 7–62 · 12.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Wallace Wade Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
HoustonMPR #33 · 2-1
FINAL42–28Pregame Matrix 36–19
Georgia SouthernMPR #103 · 1-2
FavoriteHouston
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total54.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Houston -16.1Market Houston -18.5Gap 2.4 ptsResult WIN · Georgia Southern +18.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.9Market O/U 56.5Gap 1.6 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 56.5
WinnerPrediction Houston · 86%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 36–19Final 42–28 · 15.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 4:00 PM EDTFINAL
North Carolina CentralFCS / Other
FINAL9–42Pregame Matrix 20–31
East CarolinaMPR #81 · 1-2
FavoriteEast Carolina
Model Win Prob78%
Model Margin11.7
Model Total51.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: East Carolina -11.7Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.1Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction East Carolina · 78%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 20–31Final 9–42 · 0.1 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 4:15 PM EDTFINAL
VanderbiltMPR #34 · 3-0
FINAL15–21Pregame Matrix 23–29
AuburnMPR #25 · 2-1
FavoriteAuburn
Model Win Prob65%
Model Margin5.8
Model Total52.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Auburn -5.8Market Auburn -9.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · Vanderbilt +9.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.5Market O/U 54.5Gap 2.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 54.5
WinnerPrediction Auburn · 65%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 23–29Final 15–21 · 16.5 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
NebraskaMPR #32 · 3-0
FINAL31–13Pregame Matrix 30–22
Michigan StateMPR #66 · 2-1
FavoriteNebraska
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.3
Model Total51.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Nebraska -7.3Market Nebraska -5.5Gap 1.8 ptsResult WIN · Nebraska -5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.7Market O/U 48.5Gap 3.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Nebraska · 69%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–22Final 31–13 · 7.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Spartan Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
South FloridaMPR #77 · 3-0
FINAL14–6Pregame Matrix 30–20
Bowling GreenMPR #121 · 0-3
FavoriteSouth Florida
Model Win Prob76%
Model Margin10.4
Model Total50.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: South Florida -10.4Market South Florida -17.5Gap 7.1 ptsResult WIN · Bowling Green +17.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 1.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction South Florida · 76%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–20Final 14–6 · 30.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 5:00 PM EDTFINAL
WisconsinMPR #60 · 2-1
FINAL24–20Pregame Matrix 14–30
Penn StateMPR #18 · 3-0
FavoritePenn State
Model Win Prob86%
Model Margin16.1
Model Total44.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Penn State -16.1Market Penn State -10.0Gap 6.1 ptsResult LOSS · Penn State -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 44.3Market O/U 44.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Penn State · 86%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 14–30Final 24–20 · 0.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Beaver Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
DelawareMPR #111 · 2-1
FINAL3–42Pregame Matrix 16–36
VirginiaMPR #35 · 2-1
FavoriteVirginia
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin19.7
Model Total52.7
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Virginia -19.7Market Virginia -19.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult WIN · Virginia -19.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.7Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.2 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Virginia · 91%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–36Final 3–42 · 7.7 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Scott Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Incarnate WordFCS / Other
FINAL10–63Pregame Matrix 29–34
Texas StateMPR #85 · 1-2
FavoriteTexas State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.7
Model Total62.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Texas State -4.7Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 62.4Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Texas State · 62%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–34Final 10–63 · 10.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
UFCU Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
James MadisonMPR #67 · 3-0
FINAL46–20Pregame Matrix 25–23
Old DominionMPR #88 · 1-2
FavoriteJames Madison
Model Win Prob55%
Model Margin1.7
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: James Madison -1.7Market James Madison -6.0Gap 4.3 ptsResult LOSS · Old Dominion +6.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 44.5Gap 3.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction James Madison · 55%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–23Final 46–20 · 17.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
S.B. Ballard Stadium
Week 4COIN FLIPOpen Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 6:00 PM EDTFINAL
Long Island UniversityFCS / Other
FINAL3–20Pregame Matrix 21–33
Florida InternationalMPR #114 · 1-2
FavoriteFlorida International
Model Win Prob79%
Model Margin12.1
Model Total54.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida International -12.1Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.0Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Florida International · 79%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–33Final 3–20 · 31.0 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Pitbull Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 6:30 PM EDTFINAL
Central MichiganMPR #116 · 2-1
FINAL3–52Pregame Matrix 4–43
Miami (FL)MPR #7 · 3-0
FavoriteMiami (FL)
Model Win Prob100%
Model Margin39.3
Model Total47.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Miami (FL) -39.3Market Miami (FL) -41.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult LOSS · Central Michigan +41.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 47.6Market O/U 53.5Gap 5.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
WinnerPrediction Miami (FL) · 100%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 4–43Final 3–52 · 7.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Hard Rock Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 6:30 PM EDTFINAL
LouisianaMPR #102 · 2-1
FINAL34–7Pregame Matrix 39–18
CharlotteMPR #138 · 0-3
FavoriteLouisiana
Model Win Prob91%
Model Margin20.4
Model Total57.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Louisiana -20.4Market Louisiana -10.0Gap 10.4 ptsResult WIN · Louisiana -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 8.7 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Louisiana · 91%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 39–18Final 34–7 · 16.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · Louisiana -10Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Kansas StateMPR #29 · 3-0
FINAL26–31Pregame Matrix 30–26
CincinnatiMPR #53 · 3-0
FavoriteKansas State
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.6
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Kansas State -4.6Market Kansas State -6.5Gap 1.9 ptsResult WIN · Cincinnati +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Kansas State · 62%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 30–26Final 26–31 · 1.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Nippert Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Kennesaw StateMPR #106 · 1-2
FINAL14–17Pregame Matrix 25–29
Arkansas StateMPR #99 · 1-2
FavoriteArkansas State
Model Win Prob61%
Model Margin4.3
Model Total54.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arkansas State -4.3Market Arkansas State -6.5Gap 2.2 ptsResult WIN · Kennesaw State +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.6Market O/U 52.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Arkansas State · 61%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 25–29Final 14–17 · 23.6 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Centennial Bank Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
MercyhurstFCS / Other
FINAL7–52Pregame Matrix 19–36
Western KentuckyMPR #98 · 0-3
FavoriteWestern Kentucky
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.6
Model Total55.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Western Kentucky -16.6Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.3Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction Western Kentucky · 87%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–36Final 7–52 · 3.7 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Middle TennesseeMPR #132 · 2-1
FINAL13–23Pregame Matrix 18–38
Jacksonville StateMPR #105 · 2-2
FavoriteJacksonville State
Model Win Prob90%
Model Margin19.5
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Jacksonville State -19.5Market Jacksonville State -7.0Gap 12.5 ptsResult WIN · Jacksonville State -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 51.5Gap 4.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 51.5
WinnerPrediction Jacksonville State · 90%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–38Final 13–23 · 19.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
AmFirst Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · Jacksonville State -7Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Oklahoma StateMPR #39 · 2-1
FINAL41–24Pregame Matrix 29–24
West VirginiaMPR #63 · 3-0
FavoriteOklahoma State
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.3
Model Total53.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oklahoma State -5.3Market West Virginia -1.5Gap 6.8 pts · favorite flipResult WIN · Oklahoma State +1.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.1Market O/U 60.5Gap 7.4 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 60.5
WinnerPrediction Oklahoma State · 64%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 29–24Final 41–24 · 11.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Milan Puskar Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
South CarolinaMPR #26 · 2-1
FINAL18–49Pregame Matrix 18–28
AlabamaMPR #12 · 3-0
FavoriteAlabama
Model Win Prob74%
Model Margin9.8
Model Total46.0
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Alabama -9.8Market Alabama -12.5Gap 2.7 ptsResult LOSS · South Carolina +12.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.0Market O/U 53.5Gap 7.5 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 53.5
WinnerPrediction Alabama · 74%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 18–28Final 18–49 · 21.0 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:00 PM EDTFINAL
Southern MissMPR #134 · 1-2
FINAL21–24Pregame Matrix 16–37
TulaneMPR #86 · 1-2
FavoriteTulane
Model Win Prob92%
Model Margin20.9
Model Total53.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Tulane -20.9Market Tulane -18.5Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · Tulane -18.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.3Market O/U 52.5Gap 0.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 52.5
WinnerPrediction Tulane · 92%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–37Final 21–24 · 8.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Yulman Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Appalachian StateMPR #113 · 3-0
FINAL31–41Pregame Matrix 19–37
NC StateMPR #61 · 1-2
FavoriteNC State
Model Win Prob89%
Model Margin18.8
Model Total55.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: NC State -18.8Market NC State -14.0Gap 4.8 ptsResult LOSS · NC State -14.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 55.9Market O/U 55.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 55.5
WinnerPrediction NC State · 89%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 19–37Final 31–41 · 16.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Carter-Finley Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
ArizonaMPR #30 · 2-1
FINAL34–24Pregame Matrix 31–17
Washington StateMPR #92 · 1-2
FavoriteArizona
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.5
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arizona -13.5Market Arizona -10.0Gap 3.5 ptsResult PUSH · Arizona -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Arizona · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–17Final 34–24 · 9.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Martin Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Houston ChristianFCS / Other
FINAL14–63Pregame Matrix 21–35
North TexasMPR #104 · 1-2
FavoriteNorth Texas
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin14.0
Model Total56.1
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: North Texas -14.0Market No recorded pregame lineResult NO MARKET
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.1Market No recorded pregame totalResult NO MARKET
WinnerPrediction North Texas · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 21–35Final 14–63 · 20.9 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
DATCU Stadium
Week 4
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
OregonMPR #5 · 2-1
FINAL41–27Pregame Matrix 31–26
USCMPR #11 · 4-0
FavoriteOregon
Model Win Prob62%
Model Margin4.8
Model Total56.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon -4.8Market Oregon -3.0Gap 1.8 ptsResult WIN · Oregon -3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 56.6Market O/U 62.5Gap 5.9 ptsResult LOSS · UNDER 62.5
WinnerPrediction Oregon · 62%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 31–26Final 41–27 · 11.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
Texas A&MMPR #10 · 2-1
FINAL6–35Pregame Matrix 22–28
LSUMPR #8 · 2-1
FavoriteLSU
Model Win Prob66%
Model Margin6.0
Model Total50.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: LSU -6.0Market LSU -8.5Gap 2.5 ptsResult LOSS · Texas A&M +8.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.4Market O/U 51.5Gap 1.1 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 51.5
WinnerPrediction LSU · 66%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 22–28Final 6–35 · 9.4 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Tiger Stadium (LA)
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:30 PM EDTFINAL
TroyMPR #87 · 2-1
FINAL10–21Pregame Matrix 26–28
Utah StateMPR #95 · 0-3
FavoriteUtah State
Model Win Prob54%
Model Margin1.5
Model Total53.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Utah State -1.5Market Utah State -3.0Gap 1.5 ptsResult LOSS · Troy +3.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 53.9Market O/U 47.5Gap 6.4 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 47.5
WinnerPrediction Utah State · 54%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 26–28Final 10–21 · 22.9 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Maverik Stadium
Week 4COIN FLIPOpen Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 7:45 PM EDTFINAL
MissouriMPR #20 · 3-0
FINAL24–31Pregame Matrix 30–25
Mississippi StateMPR #41 · 3-0
FavoriteMissouri
Model Win Prob63%
Model Margin5.0
Model Total54.5
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Missouri -5.0Market Mississippi State -6.5Gap 11.5 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Missouri +6.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 54.5Market O/U 58.5Gap 4.0 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 58.5
WinnerPrediction Missouri · 63%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 30–25Final 24–31 · 0.5 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Davis Wade Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · Missouri +6.5Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
Florida AtlanticMPR #90 · 2-1
FINAL45–17Pregame Matrix 37–21
UL MonroeMPR #133 · 0-3
FavoriteFlorida Atlantic
Model Win Prob87%
Model Margin16.9
Model Total57.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Florida Atlantic -16.9Market Florida Atlantic -13.5Gap 3.4 ptsResult WIN · Florida Atlantic -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 57.9Market O/U 57.5Gap 0.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 57.5
WinnerPrediction Florida Atlantic · 87%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 37–21Final 45–17 · 4.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Malone Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 8:00 PM EDTFINAL
TulsaMPR #91 · 3-0
FINAL6–34Pregame Matrix 24–35
ArkansasMPR #58 · 1-2
FavoriteArkansas
Model Win Prob77%
Model Margin11.1
Model Total59.8
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Arkansas -11.1Market Arkansas -7.0Gap 4.1 ptsResult WIN · Arkansas -7.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 59.8Market O/U 50.5Gap 9.3 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 50.5
WinnerPrediction Arkansas · 77%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 24–35Final 6–34 · 19.8 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · OVER 50.5Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
MassachusettsMPR #137 · 3-0
FINAL35–6Pregame Matrix 22–29
Sacramento StateMPR #131 · 1-3
FavoriteSacramento State
Model Win Prob69%
Model Margin7.6
Model Total51.3
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Sacramento State -7.6Market Massachusetts -4.5Gap 12.1 pts · favorite flipResult LOSS · Sacramento State +4.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 51.3Market O/U 48.5Gap 2.8 ptsResult LOSS · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Sacramento State · 69%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 22–29Final 35–6 · 10.3 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Hornet Stadium
Week 4Key Signal · Sacramento State +4.5Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
Missouri StateMPR #126 · 1-2
FINAL24–34Pregame Matrix 10–43
SMUMPR #24 · 2-1
FavoriteSMU
Model Win Prob99%
Model Margin33.5
Model Total52.6
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: SMU -33.5Market SMU -34.5Gap 1.0 ptsResult WIN · Missouri State +34.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 52.6Market O/U 59.5Gap 6.9 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 59.5
WinnerPrediction SMU · 99%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 10–43Final 24–34 · 5.4 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 9:00 PM EDTFINAL
Oregon StateMPR #89 · 1-2
FINAL33–7Pregame Matrix 30–18
UTEPMPR #129 · 1-2
FavoriteOregon State
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.6
Model Total48.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Oregon State -12.6Market Oregon State -10.5Gap 2.1 ptsResult WIN · Oregon State -10.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 48.2Market O/U 55.5Gap 7.3 ptsResult WIN · UNDER 55.5
WinnerPrediction Oregon State · 80%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 30–18Final 33–7 · 8.2 pts lower
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Sun Bowl
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 10:00 PM EDTFINAL
RiceMPR #120 · 1-2
FINAL24–38Pregame Matrix 16–30
Fresno StateMPR #80 · 2-1
FavoriteFresno State
Model Win Prob82%
Model Margin13.8
Model Total45.2
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Fresno State -13.8Market Fresno State -13.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Fresno State -13.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 45.2Market O/U 44.5Gap 0.7 ptsResult WIN · OVER 44.5
WinnerPrediction Fresno State · 82%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 16–30Final 24–38 · 16.8 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Valley Children's Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Air ForceMPR #78 · 1-1
FINAL36–33Pregame Matrix 28–23
NevadaMPR #107 · 1-2
FavoriteAir Force
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.2
Model Total50.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Air Force -5.2Market Air Force -5.5Gap 0.3 ptsResult WIN · Nevada +5.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 50.4Market O/U 49.5Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 49.5
WinnerPrediction Air Force · 64%Result RIGHT
ScorePrediction 28–23Final 36–33 · 18.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Mackay Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 10:30 PM EDTFINAL
Georgia TechMPR #48 · 1-2
FINAL27–34Pregame Matrix 27–22
StanfordMPR #76 · 1-2
FavoriteGeorgia Tech
Model Win Prob64%
Model Margin5.5
Model Total49.4
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Georgia Tech -5.5Market Georgia Tech -3.5Gap 2.0 ptsResult LOSS · Georgia Tech -3.5
TotalPrediction Matrix: 49.4Market O/U 48.5Gap 0.9 ptsResult WIN · OVER 48.5
WinnerPrediction Georgia Tech · 64%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 27–22Final 27–34 · 11.6 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Stanford Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
SAT SEP 26 · 11:00 PM EDTFINAL
MinnesotaMPR #54 · 2-1
FINAL27–24Pregame Matrix 17–30
WashingtonMPR #21 · 3-0
FavoriteWashington
Model Win Prob80%
Model Margin12.4
Model Total46.9
FINAL · MODEL CHECK
SpreadPrediction Matrix: Washington -12.4Market Washington -10.0Gap 2.4 ptsResult LOSS · Washington -10.0
TotalPrediction Matrix: 46.9Market O/U 45.5Gap 1.4 ptsResult WIN · OVER 45.5
WinnerPrediction Washington · 80%Result WRONG
ScorePrediction 17–30Final 27–24 · 4.1 pts higher
DraftKings · recorded Sep 23 · lines can move
Husky Stadium
Week 4Open Game Lab
No games match the current filters.
Reading the board: Week 7 uses ratings updated after Week 6 and exact October 13 observed quotes. Weeks 0–6 preserve original forecasts, market vintages and frozen finals.