Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Jim Mora and the Pac-12's largest transfer class create rebound potential, but one returning offensive starter, an inexperienced quarterback and a new line keep volatility high.
MPR #104Projected Wins #109Pac-12 MPR #8Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-9.1National #104
Projected Wins4.56National #109
Schedule Strength#72National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.2Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.0Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-7.8Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-10.20 → -9.13+1.07 MPR
Rank#107 → #104+3 spots
Projected Wins3.84 → 4.56Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat San Diego State 56–49. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.1 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Colorado State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (4 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total4.5
Preseason Effective Market3.95
Current Win-Total Gap+0.19
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -9.13 = OFF 19.80 − DEF 27.85 + ST -0.10 + legacy residual -0.15 + season adjustment -0.83. Sigma 3.91.
