Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Seven offensive starters and Jayden Denegal support improvement, but the defense replaces its coordinator and returns only three starters.
MPR #85Projected Wins #106Pac-12 MPR #5Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-5.0National #85
Projected Wins4.70National #106
Schedule Strength#75National SOS rank
Projected Offense21.9Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense25.5Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-3.6Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Down
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-4.36 → -4.98-0.63 MPR
Rank#83 → #85-2 spots
Projected Wins5.33 → 4.70Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Lost to Colorado State 49–56. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power -0.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest San Diego State news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total7.5
Preseason Effective Market7.17
Current Win-Total Gap-2.80
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -4.98 = OFF 22.15 − DEF 24.80 + ST 0.65 + legacy residual -0.10 + season adjustment -2.88. Sigma 2.80.
