Ratings fitted through Week 8. Results through October 25.
Preseason roster reference: Twelve returning starters and Nick Minicucci give Delaware the league's strongest continuity profile, although the schedule contains three difficult FBS road games.
MPR #115Projected Wins #99Conference USA MPR #6Ratings through Week 8 · Outlook October 25
Matrix Power Rating-12.4National #115
Projected Wins5.21National #99
Schedule Strength#115National SOS rank
Projected Offense27.4Remaining-schedule average
Projected Defense29.7Remaining-schedule average
Point Differential-2.3Projected per game
Week 8 Model Update
Model Response
Moved Up
The Week 8 review is complete. This panel shows the rating change and its football context.
Week-over-Week MPR-13.91 → -12.36+1.55 MPR
Rank#118 → #115+3 spots
Projected Wins4.94 → 5.21Week 9 refresh
SEASON STRENGTH UPDATE
Beat Missouri State 61–38. The opponent-adjusted season fit moves power +1.6 points; unit inputs are retained.
External Headlines
Latest Delaware news.
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Outcome Range
Season Distribution
Completed results through October 25 are fixed. Remaining-game probabilities use the ratings fitted through Week 8.
Current Season OutlookResults through October 25
3
4
5
6
7
8
The gold bar is the current mode (5 wins). Each remaining game is treated independently; shared rating uncertainty is not included. Bars below 0.05% are omitted.
Season Market Reference · 2026-08-08
Current Forecast / Preseason Quote
The August 8 quote is retained for comparison. This gap is not a current betting recommendation and does not define team strength.
Preseason Posted Total6.5
Preseason Effective Market6.17
Current Win-Total Gap-0.95
Quote StatusReference only
Game by Game
2026 Schedule Matrix
Upcoming games use season-strength ratings after Week 8. Completed results retain their original pregame Matrix forecast.
Week 8 closeout is complete. Season-win market comparisons retain the August 8 quote vintage; they are reference comparisons. Season-win distributions condition on played results and use independent remaining-game probabilities.
Active net power -12.36 = OFF 23.80 − DEF 34.65 + ST -0.30 + legacy residual 0.20 + season adjustment -1.41. Sigma 1.92.
